Obama waited to announce a pro-Palestinian/Arab friendly policy after righteous vengeance was visited upon Osama Bin Laden. This timing has inoculated him against charges of being soft on Islamists, and has granted him leverage to push a policy that otherwise would have been perceived as being pro-Muslim, particularly given Obama’s own quasi-Muslim background.
If the right wants to beat this guy in 2012, fist step is to acknowledge that, because of his understanding of human psychology, he will be a formidable foe. Unless gas hits $7/gallon.
*Note: This was not a post about the rightness or wrongness of Obama’s Middle East policy. Just an observation that personal advantage is gained not so much on the strength or morality of logical argument, but by the handicapping of political enemies.
Barry will almost certainly be re-elected.
Part of it is that the Tories really are the stupid party.
Most of it is demography.
The back-of-the-envelope math says he only needs to muster about 20% of the White vote. 20% of Whites are so hopelessly brainwashed and/or psychotic and/or SWPL that that is a cinch.
The nation formerly known as America is long dead, so I’m not pissing and moaning. Just being matter of fact.
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Obama is intelligent, but that benefit is handicapped by a duplicitous hunger for raw power bordering on evil.
That is how you lure the politician. By using his own kind of greed against him.
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I don’t understand why you all still think these politicians make their own decisions.
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Ludwig, I totally agree with your sentiments and eventually the demographics will be too much to overcome, but as of now your math is utterly incorrect. If it was correct, there wouldn’t even be any semblance of a republic anymore; Obama would simply rule by dictate and every sheeple would go along with it. Why sohw a birth certificate if nobody (i.e white people) cares? Why not simply steal money from the rich and outright ban white from certain jobs? Let me tell you why. Quick breakdown of the math:
This country is now roughly 61-63% white after being around 66% in 2000 and 89% in 1960 (startling change in such a short time and the lack of uproar is telling, but I digress).
However, roughly 70% of the voting public that actually shows up is white.
While you are on the right track in assuming minorities vote exclusively democrat, you need to factor in a few things.
Hispanics vote at around 60 to 70% D depending on election and candidate.
BLACKS ARE NEARLY MONOLITHIC and wonder why democrats take them for granted and smart Republicans don’t even bother. The vote between 92 -96% D
Asians, Native Americans, and others make up such a small sample relative the rest, that even if they are voting 3 to 1 for democrats it still only makes a fraction of a point to a full point difference.
Therefore the math is simple even in a worst case (Ludwig)scenario. If 13% of the vote (blacks) are going for Obama at a 95% clip, 15% (Hispanics) are going for him at 70% and the other 2% (other minorities) are going for him at 75% then —
(.13*.95) + (.15*.70) + (.02*.75) = .2435 or 24.35% out of a maximum of 30% (minority vote) of the total vote.
So in order to just make it to fifty percent of the vote Obama must collect 50-24.35 = 25.65 more percentage points of the total vote. In order to do this he must take .2565/.7 = .3664 or..
36.64% of the white vote in a best case for Obama scenario where he gets to maximum minority percentage.
This also doesn’t factor in electoral votes, small turnout among certain ethnic groups, and a fluctuating sub 40% to 45% approval rating of Obama among whites. Lower black turnout and say 60% Hispanic votes for Obama and he would need closer to 42-45% of the white vote which is decidedly not a sure thing.
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Obama is like a gambler who can’t help pushing his luck. He is overconfident and overreaches. It’s “audacity of dope” all the way.
He will not be reelected. His policies have set in motion terrible economic consequences which he can’t talk his way out of. He sealed his fate way back with the “reward friends, punish enemies” stimulus back in the spring of ’09 and has been adding to that since.
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Politics 101. For community college kids
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The really vivid question here is exactly why a pro-Palestinian position holds so much attraction to Barack Sotero/Obama. I mean, IMHO, his policy proposals are not going to produce any kind of success, even in the short term.
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What I don’t understand is why Republicans don’t go after the “Black” vote more.
There are plenty of “Blacks” who are totally fed up with the Democrats. Republicans could easily poach 20-30% of the “Black” vote. But they don’t even try.
Is their commitment to the white supremacy and racism that great that they prefer to lose than adapt ???
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Why show a birth certificate sighed by “U. K. Lei Lee”?
(Ukulele) Unless he truly believes in sheeple!
Look it up yourself … Block 21
http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/rss_viewer/birth-certificate-long-form.pdf
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Obama *wants* $7/gal gas; he just wants the price to go up in small enough increments that the frog doesn’t realize it’s being boiled. He figures if the prices goes up enough, we’ll all be magically able to shit out $40,000 each for en electric car.
@castricv – did you figure the gender [voting] gap into your calculations? Women will swing towards the Mocha Messiah in 2012 just like they did in 2008.
@j – Historically, blacks (and other minorities, with perhaps the exception of Cubans) tend to vote Democrat since they’re the party that’s promising them benefits. Offering more handouts/reparations/call it what you will would run counter to the Republican platform mainstay of personal responsibility, and since blacks are disproportionately at the bottom end of the economic scale, they’re going to vote where the money for them is.
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There are plenty of “Blacks” who are totally fed up with the Democrats. Republicans could easily poach 20-30% of the “Black” vote. But they don’t even try.
Oh no their not “fed up” with DemocRats.
Is their commitment to the white supremacy and racism that great that they prefer to lose than adapt ???
Your obviously a very deceitful anti-White bigot yourself there slick, and you as well obviously know little-to-nothing about the constant and incessant pandering of the Republican Party towards Blacks and Hispanics over the last 10-15 years — especially so under that fool “Dubya” — particularly his and his handler Rovesputin’s “Latino Outreach Strategy”, culminating in their attempted push for Illegal Alien Amnesty back in 2007, which was beaten back by a massive White Middle American Populist backlash (HOORAH!!!!!).
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The enduring lesson to be gained from the birth cert drama is that BO harbors massive psychological resistance towards doing something that every normal American would enjoy doing.
You want to see my birth documents? Here they are, along with pictures of my Grand-Kids (if I had any). And here is my CHL, and here is proof that my family was in America from the 17th century,
Why is that so painful? Why would spending vast sums on lawyers to avoid it seem like a desirable choice?
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Obama *wants* $7/gal gas; he just wants the price to go up in small enough increments that the frog doesn’t realize it’s being boiled. …
Um, Obama “*wants*” exactly what his handlers wants him to *want*…
Not a damn thing more … not a damn thing less.
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I’m more of the opinion that his foreign policy actions/statements mark him as a sock-puppet for Hilary, and she’ll show just how well she learned her Machiavelli in ’12.
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Obamas instincts made him hate the idea of producing his normal American Birth Documents.
Much the same instincts made him yearn for an opening to push a radically pro-palestian agenda.
Even if it was impractical, even if it might hurt him in the short term…it still felt so good to him he could not hold back.
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FYI, Obama’s support for the 1967 Israel borders thing is pretty much the same thing Bush/Clinton pushed for, not sure his policies are really ‘pro-palestinian’ anymore than the previous presidents.
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I could not disagree more. Obama is stupid — he does not know and has never had to, understand and pander to Whites who are still 65% of the population and the vast voting block of those who show up to the polls.
Gas is already at $4.50 a gallon, and the cost of gas ripples into food and clothing and everything else consumers buy. Wages are stagnant, as a result of a lousy job market and mass immigration. Obama got a three point bounce, and managed to screw that up by killing bin Laden.
His re-election will turn on gas prices, food prices, and his well and often stated goal of pushing them up as high as possible. As long as the Reps avoid Palin and Newt, pretty much anyone can beat him.
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Obama’s speech was not “pro-Palestinian.” Statements like that really undermine the credibility of this website.
Just because a bunch of right-wing Zionists have raised a hue and cry doesn’t mean it is pro-Palestinian. They are just trying to move the goal posts. Ask a Palestinian what he/she thinks.
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Reality Check,
How many “Blacks” do you know ???? ( I thought so).
An immediate 20% of “Blacks” – right now, are available for poaching. They are fed up with Democrats, massive welfare state, unchecked immigration, big government, and a host of other issues.
I am not talking about the Hispanic vote. I’m talking about the “Black”vote. Republicans appear to have no interest in going after that vote and competing for it – why ??
-Racism/White Supremacy ??
-General Unfamiliarity/Discomfort ??
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Whiskey, I have to disagree. Stupid is one thing the man is not. That is mostly self evident. (misguided – yes)
He understand whites very well. But for his external appearance, he was raise almost exclusively by whites in “white” social milieu. He plays the mild mannered meek Negro role demanded of him by whites to the hilt.
What you fail to understand is that he has little to no control over gas prices. Those are controlled by the “free market” price of oil OR the price manipulated by the oil majors and Wall Street. In either case, the president has little to no control over any of those things. Big Oil and Wall Street tell him and every other president what to do.
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Not sure where are you getting your ideas regarding the black vote being poachable. Let us say that 25% of blacks make more than the national average salary, with 5% of blacks one STDV about average. You really think all 20% of middle-class blacks are poachable? The poor blacks are much too brainwashed to do anything but mark D all the way down the ballot.
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Inkraven,
You are only partially correct. Blacks primarily vote Democratic because the Republican party has a long history of being or pandering to overt white supremacy and racism.
This is undeniable. The modern Republican party base being Southern Dixicrats who defected the Democratic Party because of Civil Rights policy and laws under JFK and LBJ.
Many “Blacks” would wholeheartedly support Republicans if they could only purge themselves what appears to be an obsession with white supremacy and racism.
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Agree with Whiskey here (mostly).
It may be amusing to engage in election-year political discussions 1-yr out (kinda like picking the college football national champ based on the initial poll), but it’s not the most productive use of your time.
There are an incalculable number of things and events that can/will occur between now and when that slender percentage of the voting public who actually give a shit pull the lever. So I’m almost not even paying attention right now. But it’s folly to think, at this stage, that a totally exposed, one-Hope wonder community organizer president who’s totally over his skis (ask B. Netanyahu) will win 2012 in a walk.
BTW – as a black male from a large black family, I believe that when it comes to the black American voting bloc, you can bet your best horse and hunting dog that we (not me) will line up foursquare and 90%+ in support for Obama (Herman Caine/Allen West notwithstanding). Us black folk are a people rooted in excuses, and you’re going to hear them all for why Obama hasn’t accomplished more in his term and just needs more time, regardless of the evidence all around us to the contrary (gas, food, jobs, race relations). Our pledge of allegiance to excuses is part of what makes us the most easily manipulate-able tool in the American election year toolbox.
It’s called Battered Liberal Syndrome – the commitment to liberal policies even though they not only have a demonstrably provable track record of ill-repute, but they consistently devour their intended recipients (see: the Black family; Detroit).
Black voting patterns in 2012 is about the hook that will hold your hat with the greatest certainty.
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Paul,
How many “Blacks” – poor middle-class or otherwise do you know ??? (I thought so).
As we speak. Today. Right now. 20% of the “Black”vote could be poached by the Republican party.
People vote their interest OR vote against what they perceive as hostile to them.
Blacks – poor and otherwise have excellent reason for believing that Republicans are white supremacists and racists.
They also know that many Democrats have this problem as well, but at least Democrats have led the way on Civil Rights, anti-white supremacy (i.e.discrimination) laws,.
Blacks don’t so much vote for Democrats as vote against Republicans. In the hierarchy of needs, survival is primary.
Open White supremacists and racists had “Blacks” enslaved, victims of extra-judicial murder (lynching), denied protection of person and property under the law, and suffering in a legally enforced caste-system, etc.
So anyone who openly or subtly espouses white supremacy and racism will immediately turn off “Blacks” – no matter what the rest of the message is.
So, Why do Republicans do this ?? Is white supremacy and racism so essential to them and their identity ????
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Betondo,
Blacks vote and started voting for Democrats primarily because of the idea that Republicans are white supremacists and racists.
Actual policy is secondary. The choice is one of the lesser of two evils. The guy who sounds like he wants to return you to chattel slavery, Jim Crow, and official second class citizenship OR the guy who supports policies that mess you up, but at least doesn’t overtly express the desire to enslave and destroy you.
In this context, “Black” voting patterns are entirely logical.
Republicans have an undeniably bad history embracing or seeming to embrace white supremacy and racism.
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@betondo fuchatuch:
Are blacks not concerned about the mass immigration that Obama implicitly supports? I really don’t understand why blacks aren’t more vocal in opposition to the import of Mexicans, South Americans, Koreans, Africans, Arabs into the United States. Is there a bigger federal policy threat to the black community than this?
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Blacks do oppose the immigration policies. We know who really will suffer the brunt from these policies. (Blacks).
However, Being the ones most responsible for fighting white supremacy and racism in this country (in the last 100 years), Blacks are also highly sensitive to be called racially insensitive – which is what would happen if they came out largely against immigration.
Furthermore, as a people who have had to fight tooth and nail for opportunity, Blacks sympathize -at least – with the aspirations of most immigrant s – which is to come here to build a better life.
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For those Republicans out there: any ideas on how we can get Republicans to renounce white supremacy and racism OR is that too much a part of the Republican package ??
I’m sure Republicans are starting to realize the image problem – hence the grooming and putting forward of Cain, West, Steele, etc.
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Whiskey,
Check yo’self, brah. You underestimate Boy Barry & Co.
Barry may or may not be an idiot. I tend to think in a conventional, IQ/SAT test sort of way, he’d score about 55th percentile for the general American populace. Certainly in the 99th percentile for negroes/mullatoes. (of course, it’d help if this supposedly brilliant legal mind would release his academic transcripts…I mean, what does a towering intellect like O’bummer have to hide?)
But I digress. We don’t need speculate about how smart/dumb Barry is because his handlers are crazy smart. Certainly smarter than your average GOP strategist….and that’s the issue.
The New Left has ALWAYS been “smarter” than the Right when it comes to political tactics. Want to challenge me on that one? See the last 60 or so years of Amerikwan history. As the old argument-settler goes: scoreboard!
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The way I see it is this. The traditional Republican party platform is closest to being correct, than the Democratic one and it is the best bet to restore America.
-small federal government
-strong faith in the Constitution and Bill of Rights
-free market (not socialist/communist NOR rigged by Big Bankers and Conglomerates as is the case today)
-individual responsibility
-sound money
-Rule of Law
-not hostile to religion/faith/ traditional values
-liberty – personal and otherwise
– moderate, but not now ridiculously out of control military/industrial complex
-moderate immigration
Most Blacks would sign on to this in a heart beat.
The problem is the white supremacy and racism which in many cases makes a mockery of the aforementioned principles.
–
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Ludwig,
Obama is probably – in the 95th and higher percentile of all Americans.
The demands of Harvard Law School, Law Review, and passing the Bar Exam ensure that.
He is clearly of above average intelligence.
I don’t what you mean by New Left. But the Right has been winning on all the major issues.
– Massive War/Defense Spending
-Big Corporate Controlled Economy
-Wall Street Dominance
– “Trickle Down” economics
–
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castricv,
Your 36% (the % of the White vote our manchild prez needs next year) is too high, because you’re assuming “Whites” are about 70% of the population in your calculations. They ain’t. Huge numbers of people with brown, south of the border blood like to self-identify as White. Same with Jews. (Jews are their own race when it’s convenient, but they flip to ‘just a religion’ when convenient. must be nice!)
Yeah, Whites may be a higher % of the peeps who actually show up at the polls (because, being less shiftless than the darker races, they vote more) but you better believe black/brown turnout is gonna be sky high in 2012. They love them some Buh-ROCK. Blood is thicker than water…for non-Whites, that is.
It really doesn’t matter what Barry does… non-White races are allowed to feel racial identity because the Left has never brainwashed them to believe that racial solidarity is wrong for THEM. Only for Whites.
Take Asians, for example. They voted overwhelmingly for Barry in ’08. I think Indians (dots) were a little worse than Mestizos.
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Uh, j, just about every black person voted for Obama.
Thats about as racist as it gets.
I lol at people thinking Republicans are a bunch of white supremacists and racists. They imagine them as greedy old white people with top hats and monocles.
They are just a center-right party of productive folks. Just like the Democrats used to be a center left party of blue collar types. The republicans couldn’t control spending and they get ‘primaried’. Many Republicans still haven’t gotten the message that almost all of the productive population wants economic reform. But the Tea Party is hope. They got a weak ass presidential line up so far.
The Democrat party is a far cry from Pat Moynahan. It is all about identity politics and wealth envy, and scaring old people. I’ve never seen so many stupid, naive smart SWPL as I did that were all about Obama. They hear lectures at NYU and suddenly they can fix the nation. All those Harvard grads running this country into the dirt.
Obama is a half white Ivy Leaguer from Hawaii. He ain’t from the hood and he ain’t keepin it real.
No one since FDR has been reelected with such a shitty economy, and FDR got lucky with WW2.
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Oh, and if any of you faggots don’t like politics, don’t fucking post in this thread. Bitches.
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j,
um, no dude. Your argument about “the demands of HLS, law review, etc” is a real howler. It shows you have no idea how these Marxist faggot SWPL libs at top law schools treat their dusky trophy admits.
He made law review? Law reviews don’t have to let you on for your grades. There is such a thing as a “write on.” Much more subjective, ya see. You know, so at least SOME mulattoes/quadroons will make the cut every few years.
Thus, ‘bama-boo on law review doesn’t prove a damn thing. Show us the transcript, Barry.
He was prez of the law review? Please. Meaningless.
Oooh….he passed the bar exam. Real sign of 95th percentile intelligence, there. And then he and Moochelle quietly resigned their Illinois licenses years later. WHY? Why would someone do that?
The Left is has been kicking the Right’s ass all over the field, j. If you put Joe Sixpack in hibernation in 1950 and revived him today he would not recognize this country. Truth.
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j,
“Most blacks” would sign onto a plan for a *small* feddle guv’mint??
LOL…oh, you’re killin me, man. Stop it…
“Most blacks” would not *survive* without a big federal government.
When people say the GOP needs to “reach out” to blacks what they always really mean is the GOP needs to
a.) talk more like Dems; and/or
b.) act more like Dems
If anything, the GOP has been reaching out to blacks too much.
Why on earth would blacks support anything the GOP gives lip service too? They may not be rocket scientists, but they have interests, and they know what those interests are.
Know wh’um sayin’???
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Oh, one other thing about Barry’s alleged 90+ percentile intelligence.
He gave a speech (on teleprompter, of course) in which he repeatedly read “Marine Corps” as “Marine Corpse.”
Repeatedly. As in, it wasn’t a slip of the tongue.
I mean, WTF?
Look, I don’t think he’s a dummy. All I’m saying is that there is nothing to suggest he is this shining gem of brilliance that the SWPLers and the MSM assure us he is.
55th percentile of the general population is probably much closer to the truth.
His handlers? Now THEY are smart.
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@ J
I cannot take you seriously. If you haven’t done very basic research to see where each party stood historically regarding the abolition of slavery and basic human rights and liberties for blacks, we cannot have an intelligent dialog.
@ Tim Dyson
Only conservative blacks are concerned about the issues you cite (a small minority). But I reject your premise – you’ll see why below.
To understand the majority of blacks, you need only know that black people are Black first, and everything else (religion, economics, social issues) second and further.
Hence the term Battered Liberal Syndrome (definition above).
Of the 12 members of my family, only me and my late father were conservative. And even when we went down the list of what we believe (guns, liberty, taxes, affirmative action), my brothers and sisters all took the conservative view. But when I tell them they’re standing on conservative planks, they puke.
It’s BLS, brother, and it’s total bullshit. Blacks have been so used by Democrats and civil rights hustlers that they EMBRACE their victimhood. You can google the late Moynihan’s report on the black family for greater perspective – and he wrote that shit over 40yrs ago. When you look at all the other minorities who came here with nothing but a dream of liberty (couldn’t even speak the language!) and have persevered and prospered, what you get from American blacks is, yeah, but they didn’t arrive in chains! When I respond, well shit, neither did you, I get Well my great great grand parents did. BLS! How do you fight that shit?
And who can blame liberals for grabbing this low hanging fruit? Who can blame them for manipulating the majority of a race that so eagerly and blindly follow the pied piper? Hell, who can blame Planned Parenthood for dropping their mills in black neighborhoods? If that’s where the women who are too stupid to live responsibly are, wouldn’t you put your legal enterprise there also?
From a blue collar point of view, the influx of immigrants (illegal or other) would be a cause for concern among blacks in a constrained job market. But if you preach free enterprise and the liberty to do your own thing and go compete in the marketplace (the proper message), blacks can’t hear you. Because of generations of BLS, it’s kneejerk to blame the opposite party, other races, the media, teachers, or anything else on your lack of success.
In my opinion, until intelligent whites decide that they’re not taking any excuses from black people and are willing to call out the bullshit wherever they see it (hip hop is not art, no fucking reparations, your community sucks because your thinking sucks – fix that shit, a band of young people instead of a mob of black teens) you’ll get more of the same – an almost totally dependent race of people who are married to excuses rather than results. But the majority of whites won’t do that because an agenda-driven (read: liberally complicit MSM) will tar them as racists. And what responsible, well-meaning white person wants to be tarred as racist? And so it goes.
Hope that helps, cowboy.
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If the right wants to beat this guy
The Republican Party isn’t “right”, and there’s no way they’re going to beat him. They’re con men who stand for nothing but millionaires, they really have no vision and no intention of winning. they’re remoras who are just in it for the scraps. That’s what you get for “opposition” when you have a totalitarian media. Like the old joke goes, Obama doesn’t have to out run the bear, he just has to outrun the phony, sorry opposition put up by the Republicans. He can do it in street shoes.
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Osama is right handed, the “video” shows him using a remote in his left hand. That’s just one problem out of many.
Guys, we are being played, can’t you see that?
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My remote is beside my left hand now.
I even occasionally use the left index finger on the mouse pad.
Hardly a display of unusual ambidextrous skill.
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You’re fucking completely right! Obama also handicapped Donald Trump, live and right in his face! Obama roasted Donald in the the White House Correspondents’ Dinner. I guess the Secret Service has alraedy enough long form videos of Trump with this multiple lovers and luxury hookers in Trump’s hotels. I said it once: I love this country!
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@Ludwig
Maybe time has come for the Republicans to court the Hispanic/Brown/Mexican vote. I guess it’s worth. Mexicans would give you such states like California, Texas, Illinois, New York and Florida. I see an Amnesty Bill coming soon!
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I’ve been maintaining that the GOP finally needs to clearly go after the male vote, even if it only means slamming the Divorce 2.0 Industry in 2012. They have apparently never gone for the male vote except for when talking about a war (they’ve been almost always the religious and or white knighter party).
It’s about time, at least under the guise of “small government” for the GOP to finally throw off the shackles of White Knighthood.
If they do this, they can get a huge chunk of both ethnic minority males and white males to abandon the Ds.
A lot of D white males are simply alphas or would-be alphas who maintain that the sexual revolution was a great thing for them, and despise the GOP attitude that they’re “sex addict liberals”.
Obama can be defeated if the challenger is no friend of the religious right which reluctantly recognizes that they no longer control the GOP and votes for him anyway while tons of heterosexual former Dem males vote for the pro-male-sex-drive candidate.
We’re already seeing the use of alpha/beta in the mainstream media. Other concepts such as evolutionary psychology are also going mainstream. All a smart candidate has to do is get into an intellectual fight with the NOW about something like that and his or her poll numbers might take off.
Don’t hold your breathe on that happening, however. The CFR types have been told not to ever rankle feminists.
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@ Ludwig
I scored in the 99.7 percentile on the MCAT. That must make me da smartest darkie dat dun eva lived, huh baws? B.H.O is very smart. If you can’t make that evaluation by listening to the guy talk for a few minutes, than you’re probably an idiot. Game rec-a-nize game, as they say.
Otherwise, J is totally right about the reason why many black people won’t vote republican, despite the fact that many black folks are “churched” and quite socially conservative. Furthermore, there is somewhat of a vendetta over the opposition to the Civil Rights Act. Jim Crow wasn’t that long ago, and people remember very well who stood for what. What looked like a good strategy then don’t look so great now, huh?
Now here’s the honest truth. A lot if you guys sound like a bunch of whining little bitches. You all have what is called a sense of entitlement.
You think you deserve a good career? Bullshit! There are about 5 billion other people in the world who want one too. Fuck you if you can’t compete with Hung Chong from Hong Kong. Step your game up.
You think you deserve a hot chick that cooks you dinner and sucks your duck every night? Get the fuck outta here! Every other goddamned Tom, Dick, and fucking Harry wants one too. You can’t match the fun, carefree vibe of Tito waterskiing off the back of his car during a flood, then shut the fuck up and eat a dick. You gotta bring something to the table if you want to play. And quit fucking whining. It’s unmanly.
Blah blah blah, fiat masters and some shit.
/rant
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“Blacks do oppose the immigration policies. We know who really will suffer the brunt from these policies. (Blacks).”
True, but Black elites, like White elites, don’t suffer the consequences of immigration. Black elites favor immigration. Black elites also tend to be more angry at White American than ordinary Blacks and more likely reflexively to support a policy they see as anti-White.
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President Obama’s re-election hinges on jobs and inflation and right now it sucks to be Obama.
See:
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2011/05/shadow-stat-misery-index-highest-on.html
Friday, May 13, 2011
Shadow Stat Misery Index Highest on Record
John Williams, over at Shadow Stats, compiles economic data for inflation and unemployment the way it used to be calculated pre-1990. Based on that data, the CPI inflation rate is over 10%, and the unemployment rate is over 15% (see charts). The Misery Index is the sum of the current inflation rate and the unemployment rate. If it were to be calculated using the older methods, the Index would now be over 25, a record high. It surpasses the old index high of 21.98, which occurred in June 1980, when Jimmy Carter was president. Most believe the height of the Index along with the Iranian hostage crisis is what caused Carter to lose his re-election bid.
We are looking at a case where white males vote against Democrats and Obama in particular at a rate (likely better than 85%) approaching that of blacks voting for him (95%).
The Democrats in 2012 are going to loose close to the 12 senate seats they lost in 1980 with the Reagan Revolution, whatever else happens with Obama.
You can’t gerrymander state lines and there are a lot of Red state Democratic senators up for reelection in small and overwhelmingly white states for there to be any other outcome.
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Jack Kelly of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette makes Whiskey’s point about gasoline prices and President Obama’s re-election chances in this column:
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/11121/1142937-373-0.stm#ixzz1L8LbeqT9
Let them eat cake.” That’s what Marie Antoinette, the queen who lost her head during the French Revolution, is said to have responded when she was told the peasants had no bread.
She never said that. Antonia Fraser, who wrote a biography of the unlucky queen, said the callous remark actually had been made a century before by Marie-Therese, wife of King Louis XIV.
But President Barack Obama did tell an American worried about gasoline prices that he should buy a new car: “If you’re complaining about the price of gas and you’re only getting eight miles a gallon, you might want to think about a trade-in,” Mr. Obama joked in response to a questioner at a campaign stop near Philadelphia April 6.
It apparently didn’t occur to the president that people for whom it is a hardship to pay a dollar more a gallon for gasoline can’t afford to buy a new car.
The remark makes Mr. Obama sound clueless, or callous, or both, but most of the journalists who covered his visit to Gamesa Technology Corp. didn’t report this exchange. They couldn’t drop it entirely down the memory hole, though. Blogger Glenn Reynolds (Instapundit) made a screen grab of the initial AP story that reported it. Video of the exchange was posted on YouTube.
Gas prices have doubled since Barack Obama became president. With wages stagnant, unemployment high and food prices rising at the fastest rate since the 1970s, this imposes real hardship on many Americans.
President Obama will see that YouTube over and over in the Republican attack ads coming at him in 2012.
And it will work.
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I can’t tell if “The Specimen” is serious. You realize he is always reading from a teleprompter right?
J, I run a construction company. Ergo, I know tons of lower-class black people (I don’t hire illegals). The concept that 20%-25% of them would vote for limited government as embodied in a white country club executive is side-splittingly funny.
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You guys are also forgetting white gubbmint workers, who overwhelmingly vote D.
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Jay Cost on the 2012 election:
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-economy-still-not-good-enough-reelect-obama_559238.html?nopager=1
Morning Jay: If Our ‘Food Stamp Recovery’ Persists, Obama Will Lose Big
And so, we can lay down the following marker: if the economic recovery does not begin to show substantial improvement, the likes of which we have not really seen in the last two years, and if the GOP nominates a reasonably acceptable alternative, this president is going to lose in 2012, and the final result will not be close. Nobody gets reelected with employment way down, real income way down, and 14 percent of his fellow citizens on food stamps. Nobody.
And the president needs something more than a “recovery” in the sense that we’ve seen to date. When you start controlling for inflation, population growth, and government intervention, the recovery we’ve seen has only been, at best, a treading of water for average people. This president needs to see a significant improvement in real, per capita, and private metrics of personal economic vitality. Put simply, he needs something more than this “food stamp recovery” to win next year.
People who are giving such a heavy advantage to the president next year must be making at least one of two assumptions: (a) the economy is suddenly going to do better than it has done in the last two years; (b) the GOP nominates a dud.
On the Republican nomination front, Democrats and their friends in the mainstream media shouldn’t count on that, for the reasons I elaborated here. And when it comes to the economic growth front, no more peeing on my leg while telling me it’s raining: After two years of this disappointing, anemic, worst-in-several-generations, quote unquote recovery, I just don’t believe that the big, long-promised rebound is coming any time soon.
To boil it down to a sound bite — IT’S JOBS, STUPID.
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>You guys are also forgetting white gubbmint
> workers, who overwhelmingly vote D.
Paul,
Please see the recent Wisconsin judicial election.
Please also see the US Military.
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High gas prices are the wrong focus. Short of a huge supply shock, oil prices are positively correlated with the economy. $7 gas would imply the economy is likely booming and the US is back at full employment. O’s bigger worry is $2 gas, which would imply a double dip recession. Even if peak oil theorists are correct, the economy would have to produce demand beyond ’08 levels to reach that bottleneck, again implying the economy has recovered.
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Here is an example of what can keep the Republican Party’s chances stillborn:
http://www.nbc.com/the-tonight-show//video/Mike-Huckabee-on-Ron-Paul-%285/19/11%29/1328779
Huckabee implying that Ron Paul’s position on prostitution is what makes him “not a Republican”.
Prostitution was one of the first things 1st wave feminists banned in the early 1900s.
Keep in mind that Huckabee will remain a paid Fox News talking head throughout the coming election cycle.
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Dorset,
You are equating the price of oil simply with S/D, and leaving out the bigger factor, the price of the USD.
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Another reason the GOP won’t win in 2012. The propaganda wing of the Republican party – Grover Norquist, Rush Limbaugh, Fox News, Weekly Standard, Drudge, etc – want Obama to win another term so they can have another four years of making money hand over fist.
Think about it, they profit from people on the right being pissed off, and Obama (who in addition to being a dem also happens to be black) has sent them into a hissy fit like no other, driving ratings sky high. For them his election was like striking gold.
There are perverse incentives at work here. They need Obama like India needs Pakistan, like Iran needs Israel, like Bush needed the Mooslim terrorists, like Obama needs his political targets, and like Oceanna needed Emmanuel Goldstein. Wake up! You’re being played.
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Another example of what can slaughter the Republican Party’s chances is Sarah Palin calling Arnold “disgusting” as if his impregnations have something to do with politics and not being politically “conservative”:
http://www.okmagazine.com/2011/05/sarah-palin-calls-arnold-schwarzenegger-disgusting-feels-so-bad-for-his-children/
Palin is showing herself to be a continuation of the type of first wave feminist that forced the Republicans to push for women’s suffrage and the control and shaming of men in the early part of the last century.
She’s bad news.
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@J and his ilk:
When you have blacks voting D at such high rates, and even a supposedly intellectually honest question from someone like yourself is loaded with racism, the answer is obvious: politically speaking, the GOP shouldn’t court blacks, not because the GOP is racist, but because the black community is a LOST CAUSE.
Your response is typical and emblematic: an otherwise intelligent person that is so wedded to the liberal version of history that has been spun to the black community that he can’t even see the box that has been crafted for him.
Clue #1 buddy: It was the DEMOCRATIC PARTY that tried to filibuster the Civil Rights act, fool. In the Congress, 62% of Dems voted for it (152 for, 96 against), compared to 80% of the GOP (46 for, 21 against) In the Senate, 69% of Dems voted for it compared to 82% of GOP Senators. 100% of the Southern Democrat Senators voted against it. Democratic senator Robert KKK Byrd, launched a 14-hour filibuster against it. It was GOP votes that provided cloture to shut Byrd’s filibuster down. I know…that doesn’t match what you “know” to be true…beleive the lie if it makes you feel better.
Clue #2: Speaking of the KKK…that was a group founded by Democrats to combat blacks/republicans. Their primary political targets early on were southern GOP legislators…many of whom were assasinated.
It’s possible to go on, but your willful blindness to what the historical record ACTUALLY says versus what you any many like you have been TOLD it says by leftist operatives, testifies to why the GOP shouldn’t waste time on larger outreach.
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Correction to above: The Congressional Republican vote on the Civil Rights act was 138 for, 38 against, or about 80% for.
The 46 for, 21 against was the Democratic Senate vote for, or about 69%.
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@j,
True, by poaching 20% of the black vote, Republican could destroy the Democrats as a force in national politics.
But let’s remember that the foundation of the post-1966 Republican party is white former Southern Democrats who don’t like blacks.
Capturing 20% of the black vote would require the Republican party to destroy itself in the process.
Because lots of (many? most?) white Republicans do not want their party to appeal to blacks. As my grandmother used to say, not every Republican is a racist but every racist is a Republican.
Anyone who doesn’t understand that doesn’t understand American politics.
Which is to say, the blind allegiance of blacks to the Democratic party makes perfect sense. They know they’re not welcome in the Republican party.
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Taking the two examples above, if Huckabee and Palin can make “let’s regulate morality” remarks like that without being vigorously confronted by another GOP candidate, or any newscaster for that matter, young males will simply have a bad taste in their mouths about the GOP.
Obviously the liberal media people aren’t going to say to Palin “So you think Arnold isn’t a good Republican because he cheated on his wife? Isn’t that stretching where politics and government should go?”. She pitched them a softball but they wouldn’t dare swing at it. Somebody is telling them not to. Plus the average “journalist” is too dumb to know that moralizing doesn’t fit a “small government” position unless it is accompanied with a “I would never try to legislate this however”.
Jay Leno wasn’t about to tell Huckabee in the video above that Republican Senator Ensign of Nevada recently slammed Senator Harry Reid’s position that Nevada should criminalize prostitution. Jay Leno clearly feels it’s OK to let America think that Huckabee’s idea of what it means to be Republican is what the GOP is all about.
I haven’t seen H. Cain or R. Paul challenge Huckabee or Palin for their recent remarks. Such remarks will continue and their own candidacies (Cain’s and Paul’s) will die by a thousand paper cuts that way, unless they get wise and start to speak up against the Palin/Huckabee type of moralizing.
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Tool,
I don’t want to engage in an Ad hominem attack, so I ‘ll just let you know that you are misguided and uninformed.
The base of the modern Republican party is the old Southern Democratic Party – also known as Dixiecrats.
They defected and became Republicans because JFK and LBJ supported Civil Rights. Upon signing the Civil Rights Act, LBJ actually said – something to the effect of “by signing this, we the Democratic party will lose the South for a generation”.
Look it up.
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retondo,
you almost make my point for me. You say that of the 12 members of your family, you and your dad are conservative.
that means that 16% of your family is conservative.
As I said, right now – 20% of Blacks can be poached by the Republican Party if they renounce their white supremacy and racism.
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Ludwig,
To graduate Columbia U., Harvard Law, Law Review, and pass the Bar Exam
makes it a foregone conclusion that Obama’s IQ is in the top 95 percent. This is a fact.
Lawyer typically have high/higher IQ – the reasoning ability, working memory, and alternative generation that the Bar exam requires essentially demands it.
You are engaging in the fantasy that one can get into elite institutions, graduate in good standing, pass licensing exams, and be “stupid” or average IQ.
Its not possible.
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It is true that LBJ caused the Dixiecrats to switch permanently to the GOP.
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But it isn’t “racism” but moralism coming from overpaid Fox News commenters that will kill the GOP this time around.
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As noted, Obama did not say anything remotely controversial regarding 1967 borders. The U.S. is Israel’s unflagging diplomatic, financial and military supporter, and when a vote comes up in September for Palestinian statehood, Obama as said he’ll veto it (in the past thirty years the U.S. has vetoed more resolutions on behalf of Israel than all other vetoes by all other countries on all other issues combined).
Obama has demographics in his favor as well as incumbency. And yes, he’s politically savvy and if you don’t believe me then ask the Clintons.
Regardless, the economy will still be the most important issue, and it’s funny to hear resident right-wingers squawking about how he wrecked it. Like how he caused that huge financial melt-down in Oct. 2008? Or how he initiated two unfunded wars that will cost trillions of dollars? The Iraq war — or the biggest social engineering project in recent memory — was a huge boondoggle, the effects of which we have yet to fully realize. Medical costs for troops, social costs of fucked up people returning, loss of international standing…
Still, the way this border-issue is playing out, one should never underestimate the power and shamelessness of the Israel Lobby who can manufacture outrage like the best at Fox News. In the past twenty-thirty years the Republicans have been positioning themselves as even more brainless supporters of Israel. The Democratic Party has long relied on the financial and intellectual support of Jews. I doubt the more important elites — rich, secular, rootless cosmopolitans — can be lured away… but ya never know.
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Because, ghetto monkeys do NOT vote Repub…ever. Dumbass.
Now, you add subterfuge and a specious statement loaded with guile. Getting sick of you…
And {BOOM} goes the dynamite…
You must be too much of a Black Racist – you didn’t even comprehend castricv’s damn fine research.
But, then again, most blacks are illiterate.
Blacks are racist because they voted 98% for Obama.
So, go troll IMF now; they need readers.
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@Paul, I realize the conventional narrative these days is that dollar depreciation is the major cause of the run up in commodities but I don’t buy it. I’ll attribute say 10% of the run up to dollar depreciation, 10% to a speculative supply concern premium and the other 80% of it to increased demand in Asia. If/when the USA and Europe are ever firing on all cylinders again I suspect we’ll be at $200 oil even with the Fed tightening money back to more normal levels.
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@j
“I don’t want to engage in an Ad hominem attack, so I ‘ll just let you know that you are misguided and uninformed.”
J, no worries…however, do you know what an Ad Hominem attack is? Telling me my argument is wrong because, for instance my facts are wrong, or I am misinformed is NOT an Ad Hom, it is proper arugmentation…especially if you give examples.
Now, an Ad Hominem attack (latin for “to the man”) would be if you say my argument is invalid for some unrelated personal characteristic or position of mine: for instance: you would claim I am wrong because I am a gamer or a racist, rather than the content of my argument.
Unofortunately, it is you who are misinformed; moreover you contradict yourself. Earlier you complained that the GOP opposed the Civil Rights act. After I showed you the actual vote tally in Congress; which showed UNEQUIVOCALLY that the GOP supported the Civil Rights act MORE than the Democratic Party…you make an appeal to the action of the Dixiecrats after the CRA of 1964. Besides that fact that appealing to the specter of the Dixiecrats is irrelevant and doesn’t undercut that the CRA of 1964 was supported 20% more by the GOP, who were also instrumental in breaking a 80+ day filibuster from the Democrats, you are wrong about the Dixecrats.
The Dixiecrats broke away from the Democratic party in the late 40’s, and by the early 1950’s almost every one had returned to the Democratic party. The only Dixiecrat of note that switched from Dem to GOP was Strom Thurmond; who switched parties ostensibly because he agreed with Barry Goldwater’s technical opposition to Title II of the 1964 CRA. (Conservative Goldwater supported the CRA of 1957 and CRA of 1960 AND the 24th Amendment outlawing Poll Taxes) The Dixecrat movement was completely a Democratic party power struggle…no matter how you try to spin it.
The South started trending Republican in Presidential Elections back in the 20’s, primarily due to economics.
Lyndon Johnson, praised the GOP for their efforts in securing passage of the 1964 CRA, and despite Senator Richard Russell’s warnings to Johnson that his driving for the civil rights bill “will not only cost you the South, it will cost you the election.” Johnson later cleaned house in the 1964 election.
Funny thing about historical data: they don’t always provide a truth to one’s predisposed POV.
Bottom line: the current “conventional wisdom” that the GOP supported racism has got to be one of the biggest political coups of the last 100 years, bar none. Gotta take your hat of to the liberals for sneaking that one past. Just like Goebbles: a lie repeated often enough becomes the truth.”
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Obama is not smart. He is a dumb black monkey who does what his handlers tell him to do.
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FirePower.
How many “Blacks” or “ghetto monkeys” do you know personally ?????
(I thought so)
Let me guess. You are a staunch Republican. You prove my point.
Republicans can’t let go of white supremacy and racism.
The day they do they will receive no less than 20% of the “Black” vote automatically.
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Mad Max,
Yes Obama is not smart. Keep telling yourself that.
The Cognitive Dissonance is painful. I know.
Let me guess.
-you don’t know any “Blacks”
-you are a staunch Republican
you prove the point. Republicans love white supremacy and racism. So much so that they would rather lose than win.
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Tool,
“despite Senator Richard Russell’s warnings to Johnson that his driving for the civil rights bill “will not only cost you the South,……”
1. Passing the Civil Rights Act actually cost The Dems the South. Things have remained the same to this very day.
White Southern Dems went Republican and have yet to return. Apparently, the prefer to cling to white supremacy and racism.
2. Strom Thurmond ………
You proved my point.
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None, any more…
But you’re right. All those destroyed major American cities were/are inhabited by invisible leprechauns.
NOT the black Harvard profs you only choose to live with.
All those black convicts? Photoshopped by the Evil Conservative cabal running MSNBC.
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Firepower,
thanks you proved my point.
I repeat:
The day Republicans renounce white supremacy and racism, is the day the Democratic monopoly on the “Black” vote dies.
The Repubs will win 20% of the “Black” vote the very next day.
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All those destroyed cities are also inhabited by:
-small and medium sized businessmen
-homeowners
-regular church going God-Fearing people
-plumbers, carpenters, tradesmen on various types
-lawful and peaceful gun owners
-people who despise what the big government Democratic /welfare state has done to their communities
Renounce white supremacy and racism and you win no less than 20% overnight.
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oic, the black didn’t vote for McCain because he’s a klansman – a white supremacist and racist.
Got it.
The minority must first embrace majority American values first to prove its social and cultural worth by say, firmly denouncing its own criminal element. Arab-Americans denounce Al Queda less…
Then, speak English. Get jobs. Get off welfare. Get off SSI. Quit making up silly names like Da’Ronte or Lakeesha.
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Firepower,
re-read my last post. Thanks.
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j,
I tried to ‘break it down’ real clear ‘n shit in my last two posts for you. You either didn’t read ’em or you have the worst reading comprehension skills in the world.
I know this because you didn’t rebut anything I said and you didn’t even throw new arguments at me in a futile effort to change the subject. You just re-hashed your old stuff like a parrot.
Odds are pretty high I know more about top law schools and the admissions process than you. Not demeaning your intelligence, just stating the probability. Real talk.
And I never even hinted that our manchild prez is stupid. The world ain’t black and white. There is a huge spectrum of gray between stupid and 95th percentile smart.
All signs point to Barry being a helluva lot closer to 55th than 95th.
Marine ‘corpse’ (sic). Multiple times. Reading from a teleprompter. In the same speech. Are you kidding me?
Show me the transcripts, Barry. After all, you got nothin’ to hide, do ya?
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@J The democrats have traditionally been the party of segregation and racism. They in the past had a large party, the dixiecrats, which openly advocated segregation. democrat Woodrow Wilson premiered Birth of a Nation, helping to spread it and started the KKK, they till recently (2010) had a member of the KKK prominently featured in their party, Robert Byrd (he’d left the KKK but had a history of regularly saying and doing racist things).
The democrats are still openly for segregation- they’re against giving black people scholarships for white schools, for eminant domain, which basically means taking racial minorities homes to give to white developers, and democrat communities tend to be much more segregated than republican ones.
The republicans have made huge efforts to accomodate black people. Bush made his conservatism compassionant (read, more socialist) to try and attract black people with no child left behind and a huge expansion of medicare. He appointed numerous black people to high positions in his administration, such as Secretary of State. He supported affirmative action across the nation, which means black people get favoured over white people.
He’s not that different in terms of race to a democrat. But it had essentially no impact. The black vote against republicans isn’t based on facts, it’s based on black leaders calling republicans the party that wants black people to die. There’s nothing that republicans can do to win them, or 20% of them.
Mexicans are a different issue. Numerous republicans have been successful at narrowing the majority that democrats have among them. There’s no organised hate against the republican party amog them.
In terms of Obama- people have to hope that black people are disillusioned. There’s zero chance they’re going to vote against Obama, but a substantial chance that the failure of socialist policies to make jobs will leave them disillusioned.
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Ludwig,
Odds that you know more about Law school than me and admissions are exactly 0 (Zero).
Yale U ’96 Columbia Law ’00
Sister: Princeton – Phi Beta Kappa ’03 Yale School ’07 (or ’06 forget)
Obama most probably much closer to 95th than 55th.
The vigor of the legal education, LSAT, graduating in good standing, law review, and passing the bar demand it.
Again, your point is well taken but is most likely wrong.
-reading a teleprompter, trying to make it seem natural and “presidential”, while knowing that you are talking to the entire planet, based on a speech that is often many times re-edited moments before you go on the air- is not necessarily the easiest or most natural thing.
It could more easily be explained by simple “nerves” rather than “intelligence”. Or do you think Obama goes around referring to the Marine Corps. as “corpse” all the time – when he is off camera ???
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Every policy he originated has pushed this country closer to the brink of destruction. Either he is dumb and doing dumb things, or he is smart and doing traitorous things. The question is, ‘Which is he?’ And the answer is one a piece of paper he hid in his personal copy of the Quran.
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@J
“1. Passing the Civil Rights Act actually cost The Dems the South. Things have remained the same to this very day.
White Southern Dems went Republican and have yet to return. Apparently, the prefer to cling to white supremacy and racism.”
No, then South was already trending GOP for decades before the CRAs of 57, 60, and 64. Even at that, this was primarily Presidental elections and not other offices. This still doesn’t explain how “white Southern Dems” who were almost unanimously AGAINST the CRAs would in any way want to go to the GOP, who was 80% FOR the CRA. Yes, I know its hard-to-understand when you’re besotted with circa-2010 liberal “black-studies” group-think…but it is an UNDENIABLE historical fact that the GOP was widely regarded as the Black party in the South, back in the day. MLK Jr. was not a Republican for NO reason. Your argument that the racist democrats who opposed Civil Rights acts and were defeated by GOP members, then left the Democratic party in search of a home in the GOP! This makes as much sense as a KKK Klansman looking for a home in NAACP. Your allegation defies logic.
“2. Strom Thurmond ………
You proved my point.”
Really? So one guy, who had at least one bi-racial child that we know of, switches parties and that somehow validates your assertion that bigots left the Dems for a better home in the GOP in droves (Despite the GOP favoring Civil Rights by a vote margin of 20 points over the Dems: Historical FACT FACT FACT) That would be funny if it weren’t sad, and begging the question; What about more *ahem* “hardcore” Southern Dems like Robert KKK Byrd (you know he was a Grand Kleagle, right J???) , Al Gore Sr, and William Fulbright who STAYED in the Democratic party??? The truth is that they stayed because the GOP was widely known to not be as favorable a place to that mode of thought as the Dems.
You prove my point for me: The GOP shouldn’t bother with Blacks as-a-whole because politically-speaking they are a lost cause. Your POV is very typical of otherwise intelligent folks in the Black Community who simply cannot see past the stereotyped template handed to them, regardless of how much the historical facts say otherwise. Depite being presented with data that directly contradicts your laugable assertion that the GOP opposed the Civil Rights Act of 1964…you simply ignore that (…these are not the Droids you are looking for…) and push your non-falsfiable assertion that bigoted Dems somehow migrated to the GOP who just got done DEFEATING opposition to the CRA.
Dude, seriously, put down the Kool-aid and really examine what you only assume to be true…
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oops, correction to above, the esteemed Democratic Senator Robert Byrd, who was one of the ringleaders of the 80+day Senate Democrat’s filibuster against the 1964 Civil Rights Act, who personally delivered a 14-hour direct-address filibuster, was not actually a “Grand Kleagle” in the KKK, as I stated: He was only a “Kleagle” in the KKK.
mea culpa (for you Ivy Leagers: that’s latin for “my bad”)
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Tool.
Try and understand what I am saying:
1. The base of the modern Republican party. Its base – primarily in the red states. Such states comprise almost entirely of the old Confederacy.
-Such states although initially Democratic, began a shift towards the Republican party culminating in the final last move as a result of Norther Democratic and LBJ sympathy with Civil Right legislation and the willingness to use federal power to enforce it.
-Such red states today are almost all entirely Republican as a result of post WW2 civil rights and related issues.
The basis and cause of the shift was the willingness of some to use federal power to end legally enforced white supremacy.
In other words, the old Southern Democracts became Republican and old Republicans became Democrats.
-one party perpetually fighting the use of federal power to end white supremacy and the other willing to use federal power to end it.
To this day, one party uses white supremacist coded language to invigorate its base.
Black are averse to Republicans because of their reluctance to abandon white supremacy and racism.
But for this, many (at least 20% off the top) would vote Republican platform issues.
-smaller federal government
-less government intervention into personal lives
-anti-abortion/pro life
-gun rights
-anti gay marriage
– pro religion/ or anti anti religion
-less welfare state which “Blacks” are well aware has destroyed their communities and personal incentives
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What makes you think Black don’t know how to vote their interest ??
The First issue of life is survival.
Why vote for a party whose most vocal adherents to this day celebrate the flag that represents an overt white supremacist state ? (Confederacy)
Why vote for a part whose most vocal adherents – to this day -fight all attempts to protect life, liberty, and property of “Blacks”, when the threats are direct and indirect applications of white supremacy in:
– law enforcement
-discrimination (white supremacy) in hiring, housing, banking etc ??
Why vote for a party of whom one of its members vocally and publicly interrupted a President’s State of the Union Address. – The first time this has EVER happened – calling said President a liar and demonstrating open racist disrespect.when this President just so happened to be the first and only “Black” president ???
(I’m waiting for one of you reply that Joe Wilson is not racist)
Once again, Blacks fear the Republican party – as presently constituted. And justly so.
As awful as the Democrats are, you can’t ask a person to support a party who has declared overtly and covertly that “BLack” life, liberty, and property are not only not worthy of protection, but worthy of destruction.
i.e. White Supremacy and Racism
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Obama is a huge SOB. He has a lot of nerve pandering to these Arab a-holes when they’re the ones who sold the Black Man into slavery in the first place.
Thankfully the Black Men of southern Sudan are going to be able to break away from the north and its leader, the stinking pile of worm-infected human excrement Omar al Bashir.
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Yeah, this is pretty clever.
Obama isn’t actually stupid.
Still, a pussy.
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NO.
READ mine – at least once instead of being the typical Brainwashed Obama Liberal you are.
You state: The black didn’t vote for McCain because he’s a white supremacist and racist. If only “whitey Republicans” kowtow even FURTHER to blacks by being even more liberal than McSame…THEN blacks will vote repub.
Again (and oh so predictably) you want whites to bend to your will with NO sacrifice on the black.
Go to Mexico or Pakistan – get their majority to bend to your wishes of having a KFC on every corner. See how far you get. My guess is they’ll tell you to fuck yourself – the way we should have.
Blacks get SPECIAL TREATMENT enforced by Uncle Tom Sam that guarantees FREE welfare and cuts to the head of the line in jobs, college and legal matters. The black is a favored citizen with rights exceeding most others; white men, to be sure.
Get the black off Affirmative Discrimination.
The minority must first embrace majority American values first to prove its social and cultural worth to society in general. NOT the other way around with the majority bending to the minority.
Making McCain “more Liberal” is YOUR idea of Libtard Paradise.
PROVE your vile, black racist accusations which current wimpy Republicans ARE RACISTS and WHITE SUPREMACISTS.
You cannot – and will not.
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j,
Odds that I’m good at life in general while you are a big fat dork: One-hundred percent (100%).
Odds that *I* (you know, the guy typing this post) actually am PBK: 100%. Who the fuck cares about your sister? Why does she belong in this convo?
As ridiculous as it is to engage in non-verifiable internet dick measuring contests, my legal credentials are every bit the equal of yours, plus I graduated much more recently. And I’m a better writer. And I bet I can do more push-ups than you. And my hair is probably thicker.
Columbia Law…jeeee-zus. You probably won’t believe me, but I don’t envy you. What a sucky environment to spend 3 years. I mean, NYU probably would have given you a better deal and the social scene down there is much better.
Anyway, what were you just blathering about? Oh yeah, you were trying to make excuses for lil’ Barry Soetoro. One slip of the tongue in one speech, that promptly corrected? Sure, could happen to anybody. Multiple slips, none of which he realized he was flubbing? The guy “uhhss..” constantly. Fred Armisen, yada yada. Please.
If public speaking is this good a proxy for intelligence, Ronald Reagan was Isaac fucking Newton.
Your mind is truly a sieve. You can’t possibly have processed anything I’ve told you? You have your talking points and you just recite them like a broken record.
The LSAT? We don’t know his scores.
And you keep going on about “Graduating in good standing….” Dude, give it a rest. He didn’t attend in the 1950s. It takes *effort* to flunk out of law school these days, especially the better schools.
Hell, GWB graduated from Yale (like you) and Harvard B. school “in good standing.” did you catch that?
IN. GOOD. STANDING. BOO-YAH.
You talk about law school like you read about it in a book.
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Barry will almost certainly be re-elected.
Part of it is that the Tories really are the stupid party.
The USA hasn’t had a Tory party since the early 1800s, so they are also a dead party as well.
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BTW – as a black male from a large black family, I believe that when it comes to the black American voting bloc, you can bet your best horse and hunting dog that we (not me) will line up foursquare and 90%+ in support for Obama (Herman Caine/Allen West notwithstanding). Us black folk are a people rooted in excuses, and you’re going to hear them all for why Obama hasn’t accomplished more in his term and just needs more time, regardless of the evidence all around us to the contrary (gas, food, jobs, race relations). Our pledge of allegiance to excuses is part of what makes us the most easily manipulate-able tool in the American election year toolbox.
Yep. They will either excuse it, or (again) blame Bush/The White Devil/etc. Just like they do everything else.
Let’s face it, there are many Black Republicans who would have made a fine example of the first Black president (Allen West, as you mentioned.) Now, sadly, BO has set back the chance another Black American being president another 20 or so years.
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Depite being presented with data that directly contradicts your laugable assertion that the GOP opposed the Civil Rights Act of 1964…you simply ignore that (…these are not the Droids you are looking for…) and push your non-falsfiable assertion that bigoted Dems somehow migrated to the GOP who just got done DEFEATING opposition to the CRA.
Plus the Race card (not to mention the Sex card, the Money card) has been overplayed so much that we don’t really care if you call us racists (sexists or “rich”) or not.
Get a new argument or shut the fuck up already.
My prediction. Obama stands a good chance of losing. He will NOT have the groundswell of college-aged voters and SWPL middle-class voters that got him in the first time. The college kids will be hitting the streets about that time, and finding out their $100,000 degree in Gender Studies is only good enough to get them 2nd shift at McDs, and now they have REAL bills to pay. It’s primarily these voters that got him elected the first round.
As for the Blacks…oh, yes, they will vote 90-95% for Obama (or any corpse with a D on his ticket), but he will not get the overall numbers of Blacks like the first time. Percentages, yes…raw numbers, no.
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Odds that *I* (you know, the guy typing this post) actually am PBK: 100%. Who the fuck cares about your sister? Why does she belong in this convo?
Is she hot? Does she suck a good dick? That might be relevant to this website. Pics plz.
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1. The base of the modern Republican party. Its base – primarily in the red states. Such states comprise almost entirely of the old Confederacy.
Now you are just making shit up. WHere are your stats? Where does the “modern” era begin? The old “Confederacy” died pretty much in the 1930s when the last of the Confederates died.
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Why vote for a party of whom one of its members vocally and publicly interrupted a President’s State of the Union Address. – The first time this has EVER happened – calling said President a liar and demonstrating open racist disrespect.when this President just so happened to be the first and only “Black” president ???
Boo-fucking-hoo. President GutsyCall turned the 2010 SotU address into a hyper-partisian pep rally with special sneering towards the Supreme Court justices, who had to sit there and take it. So, spare me the croc-tears. I’m waiting for the day that President GutsyCall goes over the line, and half the Congress walks out on his speech.
Compared to the UK Parliament, Congress is a bunch of pussies.
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@ Cheshirecat
“Where are your stats?”
Proof the you’re either a troll or an aspy dork; though, to be fair, you may also be ignorant about this stuff because you’re not be from the states. In this case, no stats or history books are needed. Jim Crow was only 50 years ago. You can easily just go and ask a whole range of people who lived through it (parents, grandparents). They can tell you exactly how everything went down.
Like J and I have said, though a very large number of black folks are bible thumping, social coservatives (look at the demographic breakdown of the prop 8 vote) people remember the GOP’s opposition the CRA, Nixon’s southern strategy, and the GOP’s consitent use of race as a wedge issue. I mean would you vote for the black panthers or a political that was like “Fuck whitey” all the time? Fuck no.
Also, keep in mind that black people won’t vote for someone just because they’re black. Between a white Dem and a Black conservative (like Keyes or Steele), black folks will overwhelmingly vote for the white guy. You all try to say that black folks have a lower average intelligence, but at least we ain’t stupid enough to vote against our interests like so many of the poor white southerners do.
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Proof the you’re either a troll or an aspy dork; though, to be fair, you may also be ignorant about this stuff because you’re not be from the states.
I’m from Ohio, jerkweed. And you still haven’t backed up your accusation.
In this case, no stats or history books are needed. Jim Crow was only 50 years ago.
Yeah, thought so. Your opinion, nothing to back it up.
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All the back and forth of Republicans and civil right on this thread is pure distraction from the real issue.
It’s Jobs, STUPID!
The Obama Administration’s Chicago Style ‘crony capitalist’ tax, regulatory (High Energy Prices are a policy choice!) and spending policies are extremely destructive of private sector, small business, job formation.
Since small business provide 2/3 of all jobs created in the American economy during the Reagan years, screwing with that economic engine is the real 3rd rail in American politics.
These adverse job formation policies, in turn, mean when the next election comes around for Obama, his ass is out.
The long term unemployed are much less likely to vote and the people worse hit by the current economy are recent college graduates, non-college educated minorities. Lower participation rated by Hispanics and African Americans is “baked in” for 2012, as it is the whole college going/graduate SWPL brigades.
The opposite is true for Republicans and especially private sector employed working class whites.
Anyone the Republicans put up, up to and including Sarah Palin, will beat Obama in 2012.
Exhibit D of that fact:
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/opinion/s_737010.html
From a Salena Zito column titled “As go jobs, so goes Ohio” in the May 15 2011 edition of PITTSBURGH TRIBUNE-REVIEW
Which states the obvious in terms of the economy in Ohio and Pres. Obama’s chances to win there as a result of it:
“I am not a forecaster,” says renowned economist Allan Meltzer, “but the standard forecast from many sides is for continued moderate growth.”
The problem, he says, is that “growth has had little effect on the unemployment rate.”
Not much employment is created when gas rises from $2 to $ 4 a gallon, Meltzer says. “The same is true of rising food costs.”
He also blames the business community for its distrust of the administration’s tax policies, uncertainties over health-care costs, energy
regulations and a housing glut.
While Professor Meltzer is wearing his academic politics on his shirt sleeve here, in blaming the victim for protecting his wealth, as an economist he at least admits to the on-going small business capital strike President Obama’s federal government policies have inspired.
This however:
“Democrats had an awful time in Ohio in 2010 and arguably did as bad there last November as anywhere in the country,” says Kyle Kondik, a political analyst at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
and
Ohio, Kondik says, “is in an economic rut and Ohioans are looking for some signs that the state is recovering.
If things are lousy next year like they were in 2010, the Republicans may do well yet again at both the state and federal level.”
Which is why he thinks the president may be forced to shift from relying on Ohio as a must-win state to relying on a mix of Southern states such as Virginia, North Carolina and Florida and Western states such as Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.
“Combine that with the solidly Democratic Northeast and West Coast, and that could get him to the magic 270 electoral votes even if he lost Ohio,” he projects.
…is pure wish fulfillment thinking by Univ of VA’s Kyle Kondik.
The North East is not a lock for Obama in 2012.
Pres. Obama is going to be living in Pennsylvania in 2012, let alone Ohio. Any time and effort he spends there will kill efforts for Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and farther West.
Politically, we have a dead President walking.
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Kwame Kilpatrick, Jesse Jackson, Jr., Charles Rangel and…Marion Barry all want to say “thanks, dog.”
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@The Specimen
“people remember the GOP’s opposition the CRA,” You mean people remember the IMAGINARY GOP opposition to the CRA? Yet another person, like J, who is completely inoculated to the FACTS. Another unfortunately typical example of someone who holds onto a position as an Article of Faith because someone told them so rather than because they know it to be true.
The fact that the GOP supported the CRAs at rates up to 20% higher in votes than the Democratic party, and that the GOP was intrumental in breaking Democratic filibusters to pass the CRA of 1964 (and 1960 AND 1957). Dude, it doesn’t get much clearer than that, with out without the intervening Liberal propaganda.
THIS is why the Black community should be written off politically by the GOP. A group of people that collectively simply refuse to swap the truth they have been brainwashed into finding uncomfortable with the convenient lie. Collectively: Go ahead and keep the Leftist Mess o’ Pottage you have traded for, those that know better will eventually figure it out and find their home.
@J
I understand you perfectly, and disagree completely, and with factual basis. Your foundational error, other than buying the Liberal propaganda is this:
CORRELATION IS NOT CAUSATION
Besides that your “argument” is nothing more than bald assertion (Columbia Law, really??? you could have saved a lot of ching)
“-Such states although initially Democratic, began a shift towards the Republican party culminating in the final last move as a result of Norther Democratic and LBJ sympathy with Civil Right legislation and the willingness to use federal power to enforce it.”
Such states have also become a lot less “racist” in the intervening decades, but that wouldn’t be the fault of the waxing GOP…LOL
Forgetting your abject lack of evidence: Your basic point makes NO SENSE whatsoever…you are claiming that bigoted Dems sought refuge in the same GOP that was instrumental in their defeat!!! The same GOP that had been the sworn enemy of bigoted Dems since Before the Civil War and Reconstruction! While at the same time the Dem party was quite comfortable for former KKK members.
Keep drinking the leftist Kool Aid…
“-Such red states today are almost all entirely Republican as a result of post WW2 civil rights and related issues.”
These states started the transition well before WWII, and I can just as easily claim that the states are more Republican BECAUSE they are HAPPY with the changes borught about by the CRAs that THEY FOUGHT FOR. (Oh that’s right, the fact that they vote for the CRA’s at much higher rates than Dems was part of a secret conspiracy)
“The basis and cause of the shift was the willingness of some to use federal power to end legally enforced white supremacy.”
While there are plenty of good arguments for restricting central power that have nothing to do with race, it is obviously beyond the ken of some to not cast them in the light of race. That being said, NEVER forget that the GOP was more committed to this use of federal power than the Dems, based on overall votes. Sorry J, you cannot get around the basic facts of the matter. History will nto re-write itself to suit your preconceptions, Leftist lies notwithstanding.
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“Elections” in the U.S.A. are THEATER.
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Obama is not dumb, yet after his last speech on the Middle East, both Palestinians and Israelis think he hates them. You win by making allies not enemies.
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Shout out to Ludwig and Firepower getting ABSOLUTELY DESTROYED in these political debates back and forth. J..you really held your own and I am impressed by your prose and reluctance to engage in petty arguments (which is which both of these lil d*ck jerk-offs resulted to once you shut them down.
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KautiousDope,
j., like many of Barry’s apologists (and apparently you) isn’t smart enough to
1) read for comprehension,
2) process what anyone else is saying, or
3) make arguments to rebut others where he thinks they are mistaken.
He has a couple irrelevant talking points that he mutters like Rain Man. For eg: Obama graduated in ‘good standing’ from law school, ergo, he is 95th percentile intelligent and that’s it.
So, the poor lil’ feller got his ass handed to him. Actually, I take that back…he never really engaged me in debate.
Oh, and by the way, I politely suggested I probably knew more about law school than him, and the first thing he comes back with was a very condescending “there’s zero chance” of that.
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Your lofty praise, in using that old saw, “he sure speaks well, for a black guy” is high praise (and aptly revelatory) in itself for you – a high-functioning Obama-voting Swipple with just enough Basic Ebonics knowledge to use the term “shout out.”
It lends a certain amount of “street-cred.”
Still, whereas Barry Sotero took 3 years to produce his Birth Cert, I bet we never see his law school grades. If he were white, he would’ve flunked out…even with Pass/Fail criteria.
Dude can’t even memorize speeches without Mr. TelePrompTer. Can’t imagine they’d let him use one in a Court of Law, unless he applied for America’s Democrat Party established African-American Waiver for Affirmative Action favoritism.
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The “birth certificate” is most likely doctored:
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=186343
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Ludwig = Crystal Meth baby.
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So anyone who openly or subtly espouses white supremacy and racism will immediately turn off “Blacks” – no matter what the rest of the message is.
So, Why do Republicans do this ?? Is white supremacy and racism so essential to them and their identity ????
___
Poster “j” (not the one with the avatar) is a hysterical left-wing troll — who is only projecting his own racism onto the Republican party — and Whites in general.
You could especially tell this by the way he keeps asking (rather telling) everyone he ‘debates’ with the same inane, condescending snarky remarks.
*As well — his prolific use of shaming language, in the childish attempt to guilt-trip Whites and anyone who he doesn’t agree with, including other Blacks here, shows him for what he really is — a manipulative con-artist.
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regardless of Obama’s intelligence, I strongly doubt that he will be re-elected. More and more people are losing their unemployment benefits, We have run out of money to wage a foreign war, all retirement benefits for government employees (including soldiers) are going to be seized, we are going to be bringing home hundreds of thousands of angry young men that cannot find jobs…
If I were Obama, I wouldn’t be worrying about the election in 2012, I would be worrying about getting out of the line of fire.
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Ludwig and Firepower,
I will upload my law school grades, my undergrad grades, my birth certificate AND my pay stubs IF you will. My salary, the hot chicks I bang and the size of my ego allow me the right to use slang like “shout-out”. And for the record, the word shout-out has its roots in British english and was not created in the “hood” or some other downtrodden urban community somwhere. The word is a derivative of words used to describe that act of name dropping (hence my use of it to call out J). You type of dudes are probably the same type of dudes who write hateful comments on interracial porn videos when you see white women enjoying unusually black cocks. ( <— This statement will lead you to make assumptions about my race or ethnicity, but my ability to notice this and the insecurities that are explicit in such behaviors are truly BETA).
The power with deep thinkers like yourselves (which i give you credit for) is that you refuse to acknowledge others when they are 'right' or when they have presented a well-informed perspective that doesnt agree with your own. This is truly a pathology of folks that is often negated by their upbringing and their sense of entitlement over what ideas are right and what ideas are wrong.
You guys are clearly smart and you are also well versed in political history. I can appreciate and logically empathize with many of your arguments. Your flaws (which would make both of you WEAK lawers and HORRIBLE politicans) is that you insist on fear mongering versus seeking to truly understand issues and subjects from a truly 360, wholistic perspective.
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Stick to game advice, boss. Political commentary isn’t your strength.
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