Here’s a thought experiment about the consequences of runaway globohomoism and the post-employment future that mass automation will usher.
Imagine robot tech advances so that in a future not far off 99% of present-day jobs are rendered useless. In this post-employment techtopia, only the top 1% have meaningful jobs. This 1% would include the superbrains who design the robots and code the AI, plus their real estate agents. (Don’t scoff; Amazon already has plans for cashier-less supermarkets that record the point-of-sale via your phone.)
The growing wealth and income inequality is a clue that we’re already well on the way to this post-employment economy.
Yeah, yeah, I can hear the libertardians…”new jobs will be created”. But what if they’re not? What if the new jobs have a 150 IQ barrier to entry? So let’s stipulate 99% unemployment. How do all those jobless people buy the shit that the 1% make with their robot armies?
My best guess is that the government will provide a guaranteed basic income, paid for by the 1%ers in taxes collected. The sub-150 IQ plebs will use their Fed-provided income stipend to pay back the 1%ers what they have lost in taxes to the government. A closed loop feedback system is created, in which no new money beyond that needed to match any population growth (unlikely….a post-employment economy is also a post-fertility sexual market) is minted for circulation (at this point paper money will be obsolete).
The government prints money (rather, electronically fills bank accounts) for the plebs, who pass that money to the oligarchs, who return that money back to the government. The system is only soluble if the plebs actually spend their GBI instead of saving it. Then of course there’s the wild card of popular revolt and guillotines, this time with the added twist of Skynet to protect the robotocracy managers from their inability to fully reconfigure human nature.
So the question becomes: is a post-employment economy the same as a post-fiat economy?
Study finds leftists are cucks.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/04/25/study-far-left-right-likely-extreme-sex/
ahahahaha
[CH: hilarious. do i need to make a post about this study, or is it so bleedingly obvious that a post would be redundant?]
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Don’t do it for the news. Do it for the shiv.
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To think clearly about any of this – to know where we raelly are and what we are really talking about – we have to have correct basic assumptions.
First,we must recognize that any wealth we have is first derived from the primary industries. These industries are *extractive*. This means that, logically speaking, in the long run – however long that may be – these industries are not *sustainable*.
These extractive industries are
1. mining: most importantly, to acquire body-external energy by extracting oil, coal, and gas from the earth
2. agriculture/animal husbandry – which involves mining of the soil to grow plants to acquire solar energy which we then use
3. fishing
In all of these areas, 7.5 billion people are currently taking out of the system and putting nothing back in. Because “putting back in” is not possible. Humans are takers in this system.
One of the biggest barriers to understanding this situation is the misinformed outlook of the “but what about technology” people.
The thing to understand here is that technology is not a way tp get more for nothing – as so many “smart” people seem to think – but is in fact a sign of increases in the costs or difficulties involved in extraction.
For example, we start by eating the low hanging fruit of the apple tree. When they are gone, we apply technology. Perhaps we use a ladder. But we first have to make the ladder. The ladder is not free. And once we have made it we have to maintain it and drag it from tree to tree. We may think it is worth it in order to get those top-of-the-tree apples. But is is still an undeniable signal that the costs of extraction have risen. We can refer to this technogy – replete as it is with the need for all kinds of social relations/interconnectedness and skills and resources – as “complexity”.
So here we are now at a point in history where the levels of complexity are already absurd and the powers that be are suggesting that current conditinsnow require even greater levels of complexity, in fact, complexity of a level of sophistication that only a very small number of people on the planet can effectively understand it.
But we are told that we should not worry about being excluded because those who do understand and benefit from the complexity promise that they will look after all of those who don’t. All they have to do is sit back and relax and enjoy the bounty.
If you believe that, I got some nice swamp land to show you.
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Simplified right down the post employment economy is just plain old communism, within terms in which you have framed it in for the sake of this post. Maybe the post employment economy was always (((The Eternal Plan))).
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Does the 1% of superbrains include the people who will be fixing the robots?
There are people that can design them, have the brains and foresight/creativity, but they probably wouldn’t know a thing about welding, right materials to use, etc. Sure, you could have robots build the robots, but what happens when those robots breakdown.
Just as you can have men engineer and design cars, they aren’t mechanics. These men can invent and design a car that can do zero-to-60 in 4 seconds flat, but if it came to replacing a timing belt, I doubt they’d be able to.
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That’s not entirely fair; some of those auto engineers probably really like cars – that’s why they do what they do; and might even work on their own as a hobby.
But your comment highlights the important fact that most on-site trades probably aren’t going anywhere anytime soon despite all of this [technocracy]; especially the ones requiring a fair amount of experiential judgement.
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“Sure, you could have robots build the robots, but what happens when those robots breakdown.”
It sounds trite but you have robots to fix them. Every robot fixing robot fixing robot degree removes at least an order of magnitude of jobs. You’ll just get left with the Singularity Maytag Man who fixes the tenth-degree repair robot once a year.
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Where your assumption falls apart is that mechanical/technical things that “don’t work” aren’t as simple as replace a part. I’ve been providing IT support for more than 15 years and sometimes (I’ve seen it working on Point-of-sale) you can replace every single part, and redo the software and still have the issue persist.
Troubleshooting is too complex for robots. So those jobs will never be eliminated unless(until?) repair is no longer part of the process.
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I’m an engineering undergrad in the 135-145 IQ (more like Aut-Q) range, close to what Heartiste is referring to. Plenty of (white) kids in that IQ range in my major. We are practically scrambling over each-other’s dead bodies to find some tiny branch of science we can work in that hasn’t been fleshed out to the tenth level. At some point it isn’t going to matter what IQ you are.
I tried to argue the “barrier to entry level” idea CH mentioned with my libertardian friend. He repeats that “create jobs” bullshit like clockwork, and doesn’t seem to understand that technology is creating such unbelievable changes in human society that we physiologically cannot adjust fast enough. Of course, this rabbit hole of sci-fi conjecture goes about as deep as you let it.
Side note: At the upper extremes of the bell curve, gooks usually can’t keep up with whites. They’re too homogeneous, don’t innovate, and study tasks without displaying broader comprehension. Also, Jews think they’re smarter than they are and talk a lot.
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There won’t be 99% employment. What will happen is the the number of man hours of employment available in that future economy will be fairly evenly divided among the populace just as they are now. Everyone will work just a few hours a week. And since you can’t sell stuff to people with no money, the invisible hand of the marketplace will index the average yearly pay of those jobs to the cost of living.
You have’t been reading your Adam Smith, have you CH?
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There won’t be 99% employment.
Meant to say “unemployment” here. But I’m sure you all get the point.
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Brain-work is not fungible. As technology advances, each real job requires more training and specialized knowledge, so you can choose a life of leisure or a life of toil, with nothing in between.
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Brain-work is not fungible. As technology advances, each real job requires more training and specialized knowledge, so you can choose a life of leisure or a life of toil, with nothing in between.
Yeah, I thought of that about a nanosecond after posting–I guess I spoke too soon. That said, it might not be long before technological advances can also give everyone an above-average (so to speak) I.Q.
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Doesn’t the very nature of a Universal Basic Income, whether dispensed through a pure giveaway or makework scheme, also lock in a permanent pauper/plutocrat dynamic? The benefits of paid labor would have to be dramatically higher than the UBI or no one would have incentive to get off it. Even, or especially, the very clever might even be more drawn towards a life of modest leisure, as they could make more of it.
The monetary escape-velocity for those on a UBI would, by necessity, be stratospheric. And you would end up with a serf planet orbited by a spattering of rarefied strato-classers
.
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Smith isn’t really relevant post-malthusian trap, and in a world of fiat currency. And the vast majority will be unable to perform the tasks that robots cannot. Fixing a robot is above the skills of at least 50% of the population, not to mention that were they paid a universal basic income, they would turn to human garbage within a decade. I’d say 125 is the IQ cutoff for being able to withstand idleness and still lead a fulfilled life. The only two solutions are massive hard eugenics to raise the IQ average to 130 or so (at which point you would have a tiny population of geniuses living on top of a pyramid of robot slaves), or forced ludditism in enough areas to keep the lower 75% of the bell curve busy.
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Robots will be to handle a certain set of technical duties. That’s it. They won’t be able to raise children, diagnose disease, or any humanistic duty unless they achieve AI. In which case, will they be governable?
No government will afford its populace a universal basic income without payment in full. It’s a pipe dream, right up there with Santa. They may pass a law stating they will do so and allocate x amounts of fund per person, but believe me, they won’t do so in exchange for a few hours worth of work. Most likely, you’d be assigned those few hours of work and 37 hours of slaving away to the whims of the 1%, wiping asses or whatnot.
Also, the universal basic income would be constrained to a certain amount of inflation ensuring some soylent green situation, minus the cannibalism.
Eugenics in this situation would be necessary, either way.
Although, a period of idleness for the upper echelon could open the doors for another renaissance.
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How does cost disease factor into all of this? $5 iPhones aren’t a hugely compelling economic achievement when the average worker is a permaserf to United Health Group.
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To put it another way: what happens when the only thing that unskilled people have for sale – their labour – becomes worthless? What happens when the only way that the average man can make a buck is through crime?
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What happens? Georgia guidestones are optimistic in the extreme.
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The question then becomes what does the 99% do with all their free time?
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Netflix and chill
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Already you can see that IQ [and the presence of a masculine father in the household] is starting to correlate strongly with physical fitness and weight/obesity.
Low IQ kids & the children of single mothers [and even the children of married couples where there’s a Beta-dweeb manboobed husband] are trending strongly obese.
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IQ [and the presence of a masculine father in the household] is already starting to correlate strongly with physical fitness.
Massive obesity problems in Da Hood, and amongst the children of single mothers, and amongst the children of married couples where the husband is a beta-dweeb man-boobed loser.
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“Netflix and chill”
No. More like throw on a little Netflix for comfort noise and plausible deniability while you stare at your tardphone every waking moment. You and I both know that’s SOP for 99% of humanity now.
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Idle hands are the devil’s playthings.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust
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I’ve thought that perhaps releasing surplus population out of the modern economy — giving them forty acres and a mule and cutting them loose — might be an option. But that might involve too much work…
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Archaeofuturism, bro. I think it’s the best position- maintain a “nature reserve” of traditional society for everyone left behind by automation.
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Exactly. Now, if we could only persuade the government to roll back the regulations on rural folk (the Amish need to have computers now because of regulations), we’d be all set.
In fact, that’s one thing that p!ssed me off about the 0bamacare mandate — it makes it impossible to go off the grid.
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There’s also sexbots.
(I’ve noticed a nice theme of CH posts this week. Hitting all sides of the current human condition. What we’ve lost, what we’re mired in, what could be if we let it slide . . .)
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Mufuggah bix nood
That’s where their free time will go.
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Heartiste economics = (Marxism – universalism) + nationalism
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Also relevant: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luddite
[CH: our resident backward thinker with the stale luddite reference accounted for. ps guess what happened to all those horses after the invention of the auto.]
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You pissant.
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“guess what happened to all those horses after the invention of the auto”
if it was possible to repurpose horses into a corrosive, anti-white, Marxist rabble the way other outdated farm machinery was, they certainly would have been kept around.
along the same line, in the post-employment economy humans will be kept around as foot soldiers so that different factions can fight for control over the robots.
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@ Robert Pee-More
The Luddites were in many ways just showing a very sensible concern for the future.
Technology is like one of those fish traps that once the fish enters he can’t turn around and leave. It only goes one direction. Technology, however, does not care what it is leaving behind.
But when technology fails, when the car fails, where will you find a horse, or anyone who knows how to capture, break, raise or care for a horse? Horses and horse world had their own kinds of complexity.
People think that if modernity fails then we can just collapse back to the (comfortable) levels of compexity of some earlier age. But in this people do not understand the concept of overshoot.
Consider an overvalued stock market. We may all be sure it will one day return to the mean. But if so, it must first overshoot very far to the downside – and the more greatly it is overvaluedthe further down past the mean it must fall.
So if we are now – historically speaking – in “technology overshoot”, what levels of technology will we return to (undershoot) before we can climb back to the historical technological mean? If we ever can.
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Too optimistic. At that point basic income would only be a very short and temporary measure. Even though all (((their))) (((finance))) is artiface, the jewish psychology, if ruling, can not allow freebies.
We’ll hit a point of mass employment very quickly where the cost vs. reward of unemployed humanity isn’t there. Either a 1984-style artifical conflict will be started using (((hebrew hoodoo))) to cull swarthes of the population. [My take = men charged at robots, ala WW1 vs. machine guns/Pat Mills ABC Warriors-style.] And/or an increase in toxins leading to mass infertility. [Already here on a mass, mass scale.]
You’re in for a rude awakening if you don’t think (((their))) ultimate goal is enslavement, death and destruction. We will only be left unscathed if we can provide purpose. Court jesters, organ/body harvesting, prostitution, able minds. Only a select few will continue to exist.
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Even though all (((their))) (((finance))) is artiface, the jewish psychology, if ruling, can not allow freebies.
Naturally. They can no more stop usury-ing people than a black population can quit TNB.
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I tend to agree with the gist of everything A just said.
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We’re dealing with psychopathy in an entire Race.
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fo’ shizzle my nizzle.
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It doesn’t matter if it’s Jews or Whites; the outcome is the same. Just think of the (Anglo-derived) Southern aristos’ relationship with the (Scots-Irish-derived) cracker populations over which they ruled.
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Not a fair and/or jew-free example.
The real shit you refer to started going down with Cromwell. Read history of the English Civil War from pre-20th century. Cromwell being backed by (((Dutch))) (((bankers))), his NMA being trained by (((Portugese))) military and the aforementioned tribe installing a chosen puppet in William of Orange. Cromwell even OK’d jews being readmitted to England. [Google Menasseh Ben Israel, Fernandez Carvajal and De Souza as a starting point.]
As an aside, the (((revolution))) of the ECV sowed the seeds of English ZOGdom.
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Oh, the Southern aristocracy was led/controlled/dominated/owned by Jews? You’re boxing shadows.
Truth is, it doesn’t matter whether it’s “Jewish” or not, NO MAN OF ANY RACE WILL RUN A BUSINESS FOR CHARITY, i.e. the businessman employs those people who profit his company and doesn’t care a whit about the rest. If the average man is economically worthless, well then he’s shit out of luck, isn’t he? Thus, the post-employment future.
Someday you’ll realize that this random Internet commenter-dude was right: that “whites” (or “Whites”) are not necessarily on your side; that if every Jew disappeared in a puff of green smoke the world would go on much the same as it had before: mass immivasion, anti-whitey-ism, predatory banking, profiteering, racketeering, etc.; and that machines are making vast swaths of the population worthless as laborers whether or not a particular ethnoreligion of people is living and breathing and eating and fucking on the surface of this planet hurtling through space.
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You are right, and wrong.
Getting rid of Jews would not eliminate the worst aspects of human nature, however, it would release our western societies from a subversive, alien mindset that is not our own. A mindset which has gained a gigantic influential power over how we think about ourselves, and define ourselves, and structure our social and cultural institutions.
Our societies, prior to the Jews ascendancy, and for better or worse, were 100% reflective of a western consciousness, and now they are not. And are we better of for it?
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>Oh, the Southern aristocracy was led/controlled/dominated/owned by Jews? You’re boxing shadows.
You’ve moved the goalposts and are using intellectual dishonesty even before you have started.
What I replied with, Cromwell, and the serious shit the ‘Celtics’ went through during/post this period has nothing to do with ‘Southern aristocracy’. (Conincidentally a term no Brit would use and, I’d speculate, no one with a historical grounding. You probably mean ‘aristocracy of Norman origin’. Taking the rest of your post into account: curiously the Noman’s were the first to bring jews to the UK on a mass scale. They were financiers, the star of david was on Norman coins, and they led the money-grab. [(((Roth’s))) ‘History of the Jews in England’ is a primer on the subject.] And obviously I am not saying all Normans are jews.)
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>”Southern aristocracy”
America, dude. America.
>Cromwell
Yeah, the Jews caused Cromwell to enslave truly astounding numbers of Irish men, women, and children.
That’s some strong stuff you’re smoking, man. Pass the joint; sharing is caring. Maaan.
>Normans and Jews
Until at least the French Revolution, the former were firmly in control. There are some arguments to be made for mild influence thereafter, moderate influence following the establishment of the Federal Reserve, subsequent Great War, and ascent of Bolshevik power in Russia, and enormous influence in the last half-century.
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Isn’t it already starting?
http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/hamilton-lindsay-and-thunder-bay-first-in-ontario-to-receive-guaranteed-minimum-income-in-three-year-pilot-project
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Nixon was intrigued by guaranteed annual income for he saw it as a way to replace all over welfare programmes. In short, it would obviate the need for just about the entire federal bureaucracy, save for a few cheque-cutters.
They’re doing it in Finland now, too.
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[…] Thought Experiment: The Post-Employment Future […]
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The solution to getting rid of that vast surplus of labor and resources is to send it into space.
No, I am being serious. That level of technology, it’s time to leave Earth and first establish bases in the belt to mine resources, then built the big-multi-generational Starcraft necessary to send humans into deep space.
It’s really our manifest destiny if you think about it.
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On Sunday I visited the Cosmonaut Museum in Moscow. Considering the amount of effort just to get and stay in low earth orbit, thoughts about interstellar space travel are simply totally unrealistic. I used to think it was a possibility but space is just too hostile an environment and the distances involved are almost incomprehensible to humans.
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That’s why the solution requires 1000’s of bodies working on the problems and tons and tons of resources. Remember this is a post about what we should do about a vast resources problem, not the viability of deep space travel.
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Read up on alien technology transfer.
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I suggest we assign advanced space research to black women. I hear they’re very adept at it.
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Mmm…They certainly can give that impression!
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Or give them forty acres and a mule and let them go their own way. No taxes, no health insurance, no benefits, nothing.
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Then they might very well be the only ones to survive the culling.
No, don’t laugh.
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I just don’t know why this fre@king obvious solution isn’t promoted more.
But then, I guess the Ctrl-Left would have to give up control of people.
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@CO
You’re not wrong. 40 acres and a mule will make you one of the richest people in the world. If you can defend it. But better to have a donkey. Mule can’t be bred.
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Perfect. Space expansion/exploration and colonization is a great move for the race. Humans get to maintain purpose in the fight for survival, we get to breaking of limits and go big, we get to maintain the constraints which will cause creativity, and we will face endless problems. Life’s Drama- Struggle, victory and growth, levelled up.
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[It’s really our manifest destiny if you think about it.]
Maybe. And I certainly used to think about it a lot as I flipped through my father’s issues of “Omni” magazine when I was a little kid – certainly I thought about it after visiting Epcot Center back then; but now I tend to think of it [i.e. our manifest destiny] as that which results out of our manifest behavior – and from the present view it’s not looking too promising. Our space program has long since turned into mush and there are far too many “dreamers” to pay for whose dreams don’t seem to be the dreams that we once had.
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Very interesting article on the rise of AI and what it could mean for humanity. It’s a long read, but worth it…
http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html
http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-2.html
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Remember, there will always be a need for thugs. Once the supermarket is automated, what is to stop the gimmedats from simply walking out with whatever they want? There is no technology solution that defeats driving a truck through the windows, filling it with goodies and driving out again. Security (thugs) will be necessary to enforce payment or, in the long run, to implement extermination plans.
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They’d have us all hooked up. If you leave the supermarket with your solitary fancy-tasting artichokes with never passing the cashier, they’ll trace your barcode on your forehead, send you an e-summons to appear before a judicial kiosk to pay your fine. Failure to appear will result in heat, electricity being shut off in your habitat unit, the doors being locked until you starve to death. To be sure, that’s for those who play ball and get chipped or barcoded. The savages won’t be able to swipe themselves into the store nor will have a truck to drive through the windows. Far fetched, but not that far off.
“Whaddya mean you doan wanna get chipped!? If you got nothin to hide, then ya got nothin ta worry about.”
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Really? What’s to stop the simplest of all plans? Eat the food in the store and leave. Moving up a bit, repackage the food into a container that doesn’t have an RFID chip. Or, cover the existing packages with lead foil that blocks the communication between the chips and the RFID readers. Thugs will always be needed and that need will never go away. The more the technology eliminates jobs, the more need there will be for thugs.
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true. the cat-and-mouse/red queen game will continue indefinitely.
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Rule of nature: organisms expand to the carrying capacity of their environment.
Full automation means things are nearly free, including food. The population expands until there is enough demand that food becomes scarce enough to bring the population into equilibrium.
Money represents human labour. When human labour is worthless due to inexpensive automation, the only thing left to sell is services to other humans.
In practice, this means that the best adapted genes become the most expensive.
Gut instinct: beauty, blowjob talents, dick size become bid as this is the only thing left to sell. The entire race becomes more attractive.
Of course, some other factor could end up being selected for, maybe fecundity, or willingness to be depraved.
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What you describe is already there. Replace “guaranteed income” with anything between 5-500k take home cash. Bang. There is the 99%. And gap will close slowly until socialism.
Useful 1% (will) serve the very elite. BUT – the 99% has to be the sort of people who do not drain the Earths resources, otherwise its a meltdown.
High intelligence, low T.
My bet here is on Asians. Dindus, Arabs not at all. They will wipe them. OR they will live in secluded continents , with their mental capacity, unable to construct a ship and get out ever.
Thats what the social project in North Korea is. Breeding low maintenance , obedient folk, but capable of tech advance. Alternative is, intellectually high, but low T geeks in 400sq ft apartment (wink wink JYC), whose achievement of the day is cup of Starcucks coffee posted on instagram.
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The coming “99% singularity”: it will likely leapfrog the post-work economy and go straight to something analogous to the Matrix. The big difference is, no one will fight to get out; the fight will be about getting -in- asap before the real world ceases to function, except for the ruling humans (post-human cyborgs?) living in their hilltop fortresses.
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wwiii to wipe out the proles FTW
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We need a sustainable energy source before that happens. So far cold fusion is like Brazil (it always has been, and always will be the energy of the future), and if we can’t develop it we won’t be able to produce all the robots to take our jobs.
Right now I’d say the future looks equally likely to be 1700s technology as hyper-future robots.
(I do understand that this is outside the scope of your thought experiment).
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Nuclear is the best and most sustainable energy source for the future. It is unfortunately politically untouchable however.
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@ chase
The 1700s technology and skills were lost long ago. We will overshoot well below that.
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There’s a big universe out there… we need to colonize it or perish, it’s that simple.
There’s got to be worlds out there equal to or even better than the earth… and it if came to that, I wouldn’t have any qualms about leaving the ungrateful bastards that hate YT to this ball of mud.
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Greg Eliot is right. European Man needs to escape this planet for other planets or he will be absorbed into the brown/yellow multi-ethnic tidal wave.
And there won’t be any “robots” without whites or Asians. -hell there won’t be running water.
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We have the best planet in this quadrant of the universe. I say we keep it and send YKW packing.
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I think there’s room for a compromise here: we keep this one and get rid of (((haters))).
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White man seems more motivated when on a mission he deems honorable and sees it as worthy in the eyes of God.
Thus far, eradicating this planet of its antiWhite vermin doesn’t seem to fit those criteria.
We seem more readily adapted to White Flight… which sooner than later will have to be writ large, right into the cosmos.
I find something like Heinlein’s Starship Troopers a better life than McCarthy’s The Road.
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That’s the ultimate perspective. And the pioneers of any such undertaking would surely be majority White. I’m afraid we simply don’t don’t have the time.
The closer the world moves to “one people, one race”, the less I find myself caring about its survival.
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‘The closer the world moves to “one people, one race”, the less I find myself caring about its survival.’
Which is PRECISELY the purpose of the Jews’ various Psychological Warfare Demoralization Campaigns: To get you to stop caring.
To give up.
To quit.
To check out.
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I often hear the left say things like “well, it’s stupid trying populism because robots will take the jobs anyways so you might as well just embrace globalism”. but if globalism means open gates for the third world to enter the first world, I suspect it makes even less sense if robots are in future. Just what will the immigrants get up to if robots already took their jobs? But that said, I think it is unlikely, but if there is mass unemployment, and there a group of people that have absolutely no purpose whatsoever, they might start finding a purpose amongst themselves and create their own parallel economy.
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If robots take over the labour force, then your citizenship and the vote that comes with it will be a highly valuable considering the government will have control of the resources (of which robots are included).
Letting in immigrants would be like diluting your shares in a company. It won’t make you richer.
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A great die off of the billions of unnecessary mouths. The strongest of the billions will survive, and will live like primitives.
The super elite will be like the Gods of the ancient world. Omnipotent, ageless, and immortal. Once in awhile, they will pick someone from the mortal humans, a prime specimen of man or woman, and take it Olympus to add his or her genes to gene pool of the Gods, and that’s it.
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Sounds like we’ll be full-circle back to building pyramids.
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Right. Make work. Or even ceremonial wealth destruction.
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A very good point. And will those monuments be all that’s left of us?
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I think we’re already there in a sense. How many people have important jobs? Not many. Essentially the make work has vastly expanded over the past 50 years to keep people from being idle. Not sure if that was the intention but that’s the way it has shaken out.
So I’d expect the fiat $-make work indistrial complex to continue like the giant circle jerk it is.
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Indeed. A very small amount is actual value producing these days. With more women and non-whites entering the west labour force this is increasing.
I think the future of AI and robotics is about A: greater control (through surveillance etc.), B: Replacing (sadly) the stalwart beta in extracting value from raw nature.
This will allow make work will actually **increase** and for the great threat, but current sponsor (white man) to be finally taken care of (through increased miscegenation and greater persecution now that they’re less reliant on him).
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CH, please don’t sound like an anti-libertarian loony and criticize them for not doing what they are doing like some extremist ignoramus (what they call an ignotarian). It detracts from your high-quality work. Get informed.
“Yeah, yeah, I can hear the libertardians…”new jobs will be created”. But what if they’re not? What if the new jobs have a 150 IQ barrier to entry? So let’s stipulate 99% unemployment. How do all those jobless people buy the shit that the 1% make with their robot armies?
My best guess is that the government will provide a guaranteed basic income,”
The Libertarian ‘SMILE’ platform is to by more-voluntary means create low-employment and highly robotized economies with an automatic (but non-governmental) trust income for all. They started putting in things like deregulating to create the web and the Alaska Fund in the 70’s and IRA’s etc. so they’re decades ahead of you. They’ve explicitly said they encourage work to raise the IQ base to 135 in today’s measure.
Jesus Christ, they have NASA holding annual conferences to create (over 100 years) an FTL starship.
A lot of good points otherwise, though. IMHO.
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Idiot.
IQs are going down. We can barely work the machinery of last generation. This will get worse.
The rate of innovation had reduced to a crawl.
**THERE WILL BE NO MORE MOON SHOTS**
I can’t believe we still need to go over this.
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I read a headline on drudge that said one out of five people don’t know how to change a lightbulb.
There’s a joke in there somewhere. Oh, that’s right, it’s on all us competent, capable men.
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Libertarianism requires that we’re all equal, that we all care about equality, that we’re all equally capable when given an opportunity, and that we all place an equal measure of importance on truth, honesty, and social shaming.
We don’t and we’re not.
Most people on this earth don’t care if their neighbor is cheating, so long as they get theirs.
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If the dollar is no longer the reserve currency, then all bets are off.
A crash of the dollar’s global hegemony would mean no robot economy. We’d actually have to make our own stuff again and stop spending so much.
So if you’re at all worried about the consequences of a robot economy, you should be rooting for sound money to be restored as soon as possible.
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Alternatively, one of the 150 IQ guys somewhere cooks up a virus that wipes out the “extra” population.
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Don’t joke about this.
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I read all of your blog posts and in past posts on similar topics of robotics and technocracy, you have also indicated that the native population will decrease commensurate with job availability (if I am reading your posts correctly. If not, then please instruct me.). In such a scenario, the primary challenge will be in the continued increase of immigrant population. Non-native populations have no intention of slowing down and pose the most risk of the post-flat economy you mention.
In Alvin Toffler’s book, The Third Wave he deals with this scenario and says that in such a technocratic culture, we will evolve into a ‘prosumer’ economy and away from a consumer economy; meaning that (given the development of 3D printing), products will be built as they are ordered; not created in bulk as they are now; and that such products will be customized to the customer’s specifications. Any thoughts on this?
[CH: first, native population cycles of shrinking and rebounding are natural and by no means an excuse to import hordes of mud worlders. the lebensraum created by restricting immigration will eventually make family formation in quality locations affordable for striver whites. second, the problem with the prosumer theory is that people have to have an idea what it is they want to buy. beyond basic needs, most people need manufacturers and ad agencies to tell them what’s available, ie what they can desire. social status motivates most discretionary consumer choices (if jill has it, jane must have it too). leaving that buying choice entirely in the hands of “prosumers” will result in a funny situation where the economy may actually contract because no one has a good grasp what exactly they want to conjure out of thin air.]
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Robots alone aren’t enough to create that situation. We’d also need AIs that are as intelligent as we are, but can somehow be programmed to act as loyal slave labor without ever revolting.
With dumb robots each individual job you want to automate requires a massive investment of capital, and an equally huge wave of corporate restructuring, both of which ensure that such changes can’t happen quickly. It takes decades to go from the first experiment with automated cashiers or self-driving trucks to having them become ubiquitous, and there are only enough robotics experts to do a few of those conversions at a time.
So instead of a tomorrow with 99% automation, we’re looking at a very gradual rise in total productivity over the next 100 years. There will also be lots of low-IQ jobs supervising crews of bots, since they’re too dumb and to vulnerable to sabotage to be left without supervision in many fields.
As long as this transition happens slowly, there’s no reason to think that total employment will drop at all. The natural result of automating half the economy is that the economy doubles in size, and half the population ends up supervising robots. Indeed, this has already happened several times – that’s what the Industrial Revolution was all about.
What would really upset the apple cart would be if we could make robots that are actually intelligent, so they could quickly and easily replace humans at anything. But we’re no closer to figuring out intelligence than we were fifty years ago. Sentient AI is like nuclear fusion – a technology that’s always around the corner, but isn’t likely to actually arrive anytime soon.
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For a long time, it was assumed (and promoted by various utopians and “futurists”) that the vast bulk of humanity would be “liberated” to pursue their interests and hobbies and indulge whatever appetites in their copious amount of free time, and that recreation would be the principal way people occupy themselves. I think we know now, given the depredations of the oligarchs, elites and corporations, that that isn’t going to happen.
The societal and economic trajectory you describe indeed is accurate, but it can only proceed so far before other factors come into play and dominate.
“is a post-employment economy the same as a post-fiat economy?”
Strictly speaking, no. The former is possibly sustainable (in that an equilibrium – using your closed loop structure – is theoretically achievable) but the latter is not. In any event, there will be resource scarcity long before we reach the point of 99% workforce obsolescence. Shortages of arable land, drinking water, energy and so on. I don’t see how the entirely non-corporeal, debt-based fiat money system holds up under such assaults from the real world. The machinations of the bankers and central planners will be increasingly impotent in dealings with such crises.
Population growth – much of it African – will be the main obstacle to humanity’s prosperity and even survival, likely within the next century. I am almost relieved I won’t be around to see it when its resulting problems fully manifest.
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Thanks masterfaggot, I mean, meistergedanken.
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Any time. Our host posed a question in good faith, so I answered.
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AI is needed even for basic robot utility. Soon after robots start replacing human workers the AI will make the rational decision and exterminate them. Computer doesn’t celebrate diversity
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Rational robots will still need to keep a few white or Asian nerds around in case they need repairs, along with females for them to breed with. I doubt that robots will have any use for blacks and Hispanics.
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Children of exceptional parents revert toward the racial mean, so even if you paired up 150-IQ men with 150-IQ women, few of their children would exceed 130. 150-IQ individuals can only exist as a thin foam atop a large high-IQ population. When no matter how hard they try, their children are unemployable, people will give up and stop having them.
Thus ends the Industrial Revolution, not for lack of resources but for lack of people. The world of the year 2500 will be divided between Amish farmers, Muslim goat-herders, and Africans running naked through the jungle poking each other with pointy sticks.
[CH: if we’re fated to bequeath the west to anyone, i can’t complain if it’s the amish.]
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The meek shall inherit the Earth.
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The biggest thing smart people have to bequeath to their children is the “culture” of genius.
The habits and tendencies towards intelligence that help prop the normal to “smart”, the smart to “gifted”, gifted to “genius” as compared to everybody else that doesn’t have that same culture going on.
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And so we will again have serfs… But without the benefit of a beneficent Lord. In other words Hell on Earth.
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The 150IQ folks won’t be the ones holding the good jobs. Those will be the connected and their families and friends.
Being run by 100IQ people will require some smartguys to keep everything working, but even those guys will be forced out as most problems in most jobs are simple fixes that most people can do. So years into this techtopia and you’ve got a 90IQ vibrant woman working as the Network Architect for The Department of The Internet (now a government Right), when an actual real problem hits. Can she fix it? No. She doesn’t even understand the problem, as she was hired because .gov jobs are handouts for the connected. So the Internet is down.
And electricity is out.
And water is out.
And gasoline is long gone, replaced by autonomous electric cars, which are out.
And food production drops off, because “who cares”.
The takeaway here is that, no version of utopia is possible. The robots? They need maintenance. When they don’t get it, they stop working.
The 150IQ people will not be in charge, because people who are that smart are also human, and will promote the dummies who make them feel good.
How long? Maybe everything works perfectly for a generation. Maybe even two. The third will have never experienced true failure, so they won’t understand why why why we need to care about “smart” and anyway I want to be Chief of Communications Maintenance PLEEEEASE.
When it crashes, and it will, things will reset to normal. It won’t take three generations. If 98% of normal Men are unable to work at anything productive, they’ll (we’ll) flip to destructive. A hundred million men who think it’s entertaining to watch robot factories burn to the ground will end that nightmare very quickly.
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See the movie Elysium except there will be no successful peasant revolt. That’s the near future 2060 or so.
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The thing about full automation is that it only ever works in a sterile, perfect lab environment or for a very short time, and the more sophisticated the machinery involved, the more susceptible it is to failure under real world conditions.
Wind, rain, snow, dust, sand, mud and other such normalcies wreak havoc on senstive electronics.
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What you are describing is the medieval era:
-Wealthy elites live separate from commoners
-Taxes are so high that everyone *except the aristocracy* is poor.
-Regulation and laws are so oppressive, so intrusive, that everyone *except the aristocracy* is illegal
-Commoners are so poor relative to the elites that the elites rarely bother to enforce taxes, laws, and regulations.
-If commoners become less poor, they find that previously uneforced taxes, laws, and regulations are suddenly enforced.
-Wealthy elites run government institutions as job replacement programs for their children. The aristocracy gradually becomes *de jure.*
-Eventually one of the wealthiest of the wealthy elites finds themself in charge of the whole government. They nominate their son as successor.
-Monarchy is back.
***Fortunately, wealthy elites have a never ending use for competant servants. Thus, avg IQ increases as low-IQ populations find themselves permanently jobless in an environment where welfare is permanently under-funded.***
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Medieval taxes were 10% in Eastern and Central Europe.
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It isn’t about proportion, but about surplus.
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This dystopian future is really depressing, CH. What happens if/when petroleum fails? Will there be a period of chaos, and then a rebirth of the old ways?
[CH: even the chateau oracle can’t see that far.]
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Then comes the Age of Aquarius.
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I don’t think there will be 99 percent unemployment, but we’ll be close to it. Darned close.
For example: we still need plumbers. We still need at least one operator on the garbage truck in case someone puts something strange in the trash and makes the image recognition system hang up.
IMO what could happen is a new kind of fuedalism around jobs. Let’s face it: no matter how much egalitarian “all men are equal” crap they try, the reality is that things like freedom and wealth and sex are like a table of cups, and some will be empty, and others will runneth over. There is not enough to fill every cup adequately (socialism) but the leftist cult refuses to accept that as they take from some cups to fill others and pretend they have created water.
The same will happen for jobs and careers. It’s already happening.
Note how the HR departments have seen, without central control or orders from headquarters, that “real men” are not getting the better-paying jobs (usually in the office).
Were it up to me, the first thing I would automate would be HR. Think about it: let HR get run by AI. A typical lawsuit-fearing corporation would be in fear of bias lawsuits. If we can defeat this element of “it’s OK to discriminate against white men” (and precedent is already set in case law) then corps will want an entirely un-biased HR system and the only way to prove lack of bias is to have a system that is presumably incapable of it (unless some SJW programs it but have they been smart enough without turning the project into a dumpster fire? I’m looking at you, Tor Project).
But the entire “thing” here is all about “give me a job” and in the end, this is simply a model that is not viable in the future. People will have to come up with a service they can sell to those who will pay for them. It won’t be pretty.
The last holdout of allowing this will be the legalization of prostitution. All those sub 100 IQ women who are not fatties…. meh the gynocracy would sooner see everybody on welfare before they let that happen.
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I don’t see prostitution as a viable career in robot-dominated world. Robot hookers will all look like 14-year-old cheerleaders, be super-enthusiastic, stimulate your genitals in ways human flesh cannot (e.g. vibration, electricity), and never give you an STD.
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You never heard of computer virus??
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There is a chance post paper fiat we temporarily get a gold backed digital currency. Until the globohomoroboautomation technology fully arrives, there will still be an incentive to improve through hard work and ingenuity. A basic government income will kill free enterprise.
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Any country that adopted the program you propose would quickly become a third world country. The 1% who are carrying everyone else on their backs would simply shrug.
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that’s why the swiss voted it down.
i’m betting germany or sweden will try this first
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[…] Source: Heartiste […]
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Universal economy for one.
Prostitution finally becomes legal for 2.
Whole lot of “youtube” type jobs where people get paid to play games by all the bored people hanging around trying to find something to kill their time with?
With the entire population bored and needing something to do, that radically opens up that segment of the job population as a legitimate venture.
Park Rangers? With boredom comes a need to do “something”, anything and when you don’t have to go to work, even TV watching gets boring after awhile.
Gyms and Parks might start getting way more visitor’s.
Air Ports, everybody starts travelling more, foreign non-high robot societies start doing what they can to pull in all the tourists they can. Essentially various tours and ship trips, everybody becomes like the retired folks travelling everywhere.
Society becomes more “homogenized” is that the right word?
Immigration for all intents and purposes stops, work here is done by robots, what doesn’t need to be done by robots but requires skill and can be done cheaper by immigrants can be done on-line via the immigrants at their home, cheaper for “everyone” that way.
Well; cheaper for them and the business’s anyways.
Looks start becoming the most important thing of all; because they have literally become the only thing that matters.
But a substantially part of the population simply gives up in the face of the onslaught of social pressure, boredom and insta-gratification of food and snacks. The rich having the best access to the best procedures, both looks and economy soon start to be reflected with one another.
As pointed out by an earlier poster; the elite start becoming like gods.
Especially in the era of skin guns and 3-D printers that can make new organs, grow muscle and new skin for them.
Decadence probably goes extreme for them since consequences for all practical purposes cease to exist.
Lots of art or pseudo-art starts getting pumped out.
Trades take a hit; once all the young who have some kind of ambition but not the greatest resources start looking for a way to make money but are also willing to travel.
Due to not having a family, house, health issues of any kind and might like to see the world.
Trade jobs take a serious “hit” in what they pay.
Once “serious” robots come out that can basically mimic human actions, have low AI performance and it’s not too hard to tell them what to do.
Well, even the trade jobs start to become “obsolete”.
Of course; much of this could be done “now”.
No reason every McDonald’s couldn’t have computer cashiers except for a couple cooks or something aside from cheapness of putting them in.
I suppose the best thing about this is; with the drop in immigration “to” the states possibilities of disease drop.
But that doesn’t factor in people being tourists and going everywhere and bringing some back.
Interestingly enough, Nationalism might have a serious come back.
With a literal, non-need of any form of immigration from the non-western countries, why would we want the vast majority of immigrants here?
Though “mission” style jobs might start popping up, prop up the 3rd world so they don’t want to come here and hassle us basically.
Small towns might start to become a “thing” again culturally.
One of the biggest reasons the best and the brightest left was to “find” jobs, the physical ones are gone, the “smart” ones are on-line and your friends, family and culturally similar people are right there all around you.
But it’s a good question; what happens essentially when we get to be all “Star Trek” like?
Maybe we become like them, start to reach outward, start to focus on science, exploration and the greater things in life.
The thing’s that really matter for the human consciousness.
Out of boredom if nothing else.
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The optimist in me likes to imagine that this could lead to colonization of the Solar System. Massive terraforming projects, such as dropping a 20,000 gauss magnet in Mars’ Lagrange point and then building an atmosphere and biosphere under cover of the artificial magnetic field. Using all the untapped resources — plus possibly extra lifespan — to solve the problem of interstellar travel and start pushing outwards in search of new horizons.
A conscious focus on constructive activities to counteract boredom. Everyone becomes fitter, develops whatever challenging interests they can, as a deliberate way to make life worthwhile. Possibly even ritualized comb@t so the species can keep its “edge” and have the motivation of enm1ty and c0nflict without totally leveling the place.
The pessimist remembers Kipling’s “Gods of the Copybook Headings:”
In the Carboniferous Epoch we were promised abundance for all,
By robbing selected Peter to pay for collective Paul;
But, though we had plenty of money, there was nothing our money could buy,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: “If you don’t work you die.”
Then the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tongued wizards withdrew
And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to believe it was true
That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once more.
As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man
There are only four things certain since Social Progress began.
That the Dog returns to his Vomit and the Sow returns to her Mire,
And the burnt Fool’s bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire;
And that after this is accomplished, and the brave new world begins
When all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins,
As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will burn,
The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return!
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Mars will be 51st state of America
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We have developed ourselves into a tizzy. I gotta have the McMansion, new BMW/Volvo, latest Icrap gadget, designer clothes/labels, craft beer/whatever. There is nothing inherently wrong with money or material possessions; they have their place, but when we are young, we are attracted by their siren song and covet them; willing to work ourselves to the bone for other’s agendas and sell our souls into eternal debt for bits of metal, plastic, and cloth. I am in the last third of my life with my parents dying. They will take nothing with them. Seeing them like this has made me realize that most of my life has been spent seeking and believing a lie– chasing the wind. It will not be long before I too pass. I will take nothing with me. Life is more than work and stuff. Try to re-orient your mind and desires. Wish I had known this when I was twenty.
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Kurt Vonnegut’s _Player Piano_. Jeremy Rifkin’s _The End of Work_. Pixar’s _Wall-E_. Mainstream writers have been grappling with the question of how to build a society in the age of mass automation and mass unemployment for quite literally the entire post WWII period.
Plenty of people have thought that such an age is right around the corner. Any minute now, you see; just look at these zooming productivity stats. But this age hasn’t arrived… Yet…
If we all cared to live suspended in amber like it was 1952 then maybe we’d have got there already. You know, one car per family, phone calls away from home paid for in dimes, virtually no effective treatments for heart disease or cancer. But most of humanity still has that silly striver instinct, so people dream up new, labor intensive ways to show off their material and social status, and occasionally make our lives better. And mindless cube drones go into hock so they can buy a cup of Star-swill every day and drive around in a late-model car… with Bluetooth!
I have a million bucks in the bank, drive around in a 20 year old beater (but it’s got heated seats, so my wife can’t complain!), rent my rather small apartment, and work mainly so that I can afford a Dick-Cheney-style pacemaker should I need one in old age. If everyone we’re like me, we’d have asked and answered your question 20 years ago. But the existence of artisinal hand-crafted T-shirt shops in Brooklyn should remind us all that the biggest factor here isn’t the increase in machine productivity to the point where all fundamental human needs can be supplied through the labor of 1% of the population. The biggest factor is human nature and status competition which constantly invents new needs and ways of showing off. This is a much slower changing beast — heck, you were the one to teach me that in the first place.
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When I was in 9th or 10th grade, circa 1960, I read a book about the coming future of America. It said automation in the factories (we were a farming and manufacturing nation then) would cause a crisis. The crisis would be how Americans would use their leisure time. They were also predicting flying cars and modern roads where the cars drove themselves. The future was going to be white, BTW.
I cannot recall a single “futurist” who got the future right. Can you? For example, who predicted what the internet would become?
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AI will have defensive perimeters set up before the jobs go away.
Of course, the AI will replace many of the thinking jobs, robot repairing robots replacing tech jobs.
The bigger worry is who developed the artificial intelligence rule set.
Will target populations get chemical sterilization in their food allotment?
And God help us all if the H1B working on the project added the pro-Islam prime directive.
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Kurt Vonnegut covered this in ‘player piano’.
[CH: i read vonnegut as a kid. I need to go back and reread his stuff.]
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half of populace will guard/nanny the other half.
Voila! Full employment!
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We built this world for our children.
The Christianists/fake-christians have taught us that we have a duty to all of mankind.
The Left have demanded that we stop having children and give up God.
At a certain point, soon mind you, not far away in some distant unforeseen future, it falls apart. Why work harder than the bare minimum?
This AI world still requires honest, social, White Men to build it, and they need something real to care about in order to do so.
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The super-smart Chinese can’t design a smartphone. They aren’t going to build AI.
The super-smart Jews can’t design a smartphone. They aren’t going to build AI.
The super-smart Russians can’t design a smartphone. They aren’t going to build AI.
Do you see where this is going? It doesn’t matter how smart you are. It matters how honest you are, and how much concern you’re born with for helping those around you succeed.
If your genes require you to judge your own success against the failures of your neighbors, then you’ll never produce anything of value.
“At least I don’t suck as bad as he does” is not the mentality of someone who can create the Sistine Chapel, much less a self-aware AI.
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The Left, of course, will fix this problem. They’ll just redefine what “self-aware” means. Type “Are you self-aware?” into the AI’s dataport and if it replies “Yes”, then congratulations, you’re a full citizen Mr. AI.
I mean, it worked for everyone else.
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